'Unsettled weather' likely for Breeders' Cup 2018 at Churchill

With the 10-day forecast in range for the Nov. 2-3 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, weather app screenshots with drops and umbrellas are dotting social media. But is rain a reality as the championships return to Louisville, Ky., for the first time since 2011?

Jude Redfield, meteorologist at local FOX affiliate WDRB 41, said there’s a “likelihood for unsettled weather” sometime Thursday through Sunday in the region, and that below-average temperatures with highs in the 40s or 50s can be expected.

“The problem is with the reliability,” Redfield said. “We can look at models that we use on a daily basis that typically do a good job, but when you start to get past Day 3, 4, 5, it goes from like hitting an exacta to a trifecta to superfecta. That’s how much more difficult it becomes.”

Redfield focuses on three models to form his forecasts. They show everything now from rain moving in Thursday and out quickly to a mix of showers and snow on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.

Fast dirt remains possible — Churchill Downs is known for a quick-drying surface — but firm turf seems improbable.

“The likelihood is that we’ll keep this cooler-than-average pattern, and at some point there’s going to be some rain in the forecast,” Redfield said. “You just can’t get too specific. Is it an inch of rain? Is it a one-hour window with some scattered showers?

“I’d be surprised if we pulled out high pressure and sunshine three days in a row Friday, Saturday and Sunday for that entire weekend.”

So, back to the forecasters: Services such as AccuWeather or the app on your iPhone “are just generically done,” Redfield said. He recommends visitors flip on local channels upon their arrival to Louisville to hear from meteorologists who know the weather patterns best.

“You’ll see an icon on there that says raindrops,” Redfield said of apps, “and you think the whole day is washed out when in reality that rain could just represent 30 minutes of a rain chance in a 24-hour day.”

Of course, neither computers nor humans predicted the deluge that was Kentucky Derby day, the wettest on record after 3.15 inches of rain fell.

“That was one of those impossible feats to predict, and that was the morning of Derby,” Redfield said. “I would just say don’t let a long-range forecast ruin anything yet (for Breeders’ Cup), but the weather is definitely going to be an interesting topic as we get closer.”