Uncertain Ky. Derby favorite has Mattress Mack mulling bet

Epicenter was the futures choice most of the winter and early spring. That was before the morning line this week declared Zandon to be the new favorite for Kentucky Derby 2022.

That only works as long as the money follows. And no one may bring more money to the Derby party than Houston businessman and renowned sports bettor Jim McIngvale. So which way will Mattress Mack aim the $3 million he intends to bet on the favorite for Saturday’s race?

“We’re going to sit chilly for a while and kind of see what’s happening,” McIngvale said by phone Tuesday afternoon from Texas. “My feeling is it may bounce between the two favorites.”

Get free Kentucky Derby past performances from Brisnet.

It gets complicated, even for something that sounded simple at the outset. McIngvale announced April 18 he would bet up to $3 million on the Derby favorite. If that horse were to win the race, he would refund the cost of any $3,000-plus mattress bought at his Gallery Furniture stores during the promotion.

At the time it looked like Epicenter, the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, would carry the shortest odds, especially with the influence of McIngvale’s bankroll. But Zandon, who won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), picked up late steam in both Nevada and offshore futures.

When longtime Kentucky Derby handicapper Mike Battaglia declared Monday that Zandon was his 3-1 morning-line favorite, that stoked curiosity about the direction McIngvale would make his wager. It also got him thinking about one of his early betting angles.

“I want to see what’s happening on the Oaks-Derby (double) and see which Derby horse they’re picking the most,” McIngvale said. “I think that’ll be a pretty telltale sign. That’s definitely a wise-guy bet.”

In other words, McIngvale may wait until after Friday’s Kentucky Oaks to see which Derby horse has the shortest price in the Oaks-Derby double will-pays.

Right after Malathaat won last year’s Oaks, she and Essential Quality had the shortest payout, $14.80, for a $1 Oaks-Derby double bet. By then, McIngvale already had bet $500,000 on Essential Quality to win the Derby, helping to make him an even-money favorite at the time. A day later Essential Quality closed a clear 5-2 favorite with the help of $2.4 million of Mattress Mack money.

With the Derby favorite not so clear this year, McIngvale said he might put some of his early money right into the Oaks-Derby pool.

“A little bit, once I figure out which horse in the Kentucky Derby is getting the most action,” he said, adding he may lean toward Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) winner Echo Zulu but spread to as many as five or six fillies on Friday.

While he watches the toteboard, McIngvale admitted he may have to split bets to cover both Zandon and Epicenter, especially since his mattress promotion specifically tied refunds to the fate of the post-time favorite in the Derby.

McIngvale did not rule out the possibility that some of his $3 million could trickle in on, say, Zandon on Friday but sway toward Epicenter on Saturday.

“Absolutely, if that’s where the money is going,” he said. “I’ve got to be on the favorite to hedge this bet with all the customers. I’ll absolutely be on whatever the public puts their money on.”

McIngvale did not seem to mind the idea that a wide-open Derby could dilute the potential return on his investment.

“That’s the way the ball bounces,” he said. “It’s up to me to read the tea leaves. I’m going to try to get it as right as I can. If there’s some money bet on Zandon and some on Epicenter, that’s not the worst thing in the world. Then I’ve got two horses to cheer for.”

Actually, he has three, what with the futures bets he made last fall on Smile Happy and on his stallion Runhappy. According to Churchill Downs, McIngvale bet $10,000 to return $96,000 on Smile Happy, who closed at 8-1 in the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager. McIngvale also put $3,000 to get back $24,000 at 7-1 on Runhappy in the Derby Sire Future Wager.

“I’m really cheering for Smile Happy,” he said, adding that he will put some more money on the colt trained by Ken McPeek, ridden by Corey Lanerie and carrying a morning-line price of 20-1.

“He’ll get a big price,” McIngvale said. “He’s been beaten by (Zandon and Epicenter), so he’s been around them before. He’s got a good post position (No. 5), and he’s got a good rider, so we’ll see how he does. Hopefully I’ll be cheering the favorite and Smile Happy in a dead heat to win.”

McIngvale said he expects to fly from Texas to Kentucky on Friday for a side trip to Lexington before making the short trip west to Louisville on Derby day.

Through Runhappy, who stands at Claiborne Farm in Paris, Ky., McIngvale is a Horse Racing Nation sponsor.