UAE Derby fair odds: Forever Young faces Ky. Derby test

Granted, the UAE Derby-to-Kentucky Derby path has not been a productive one, but it never has been trod with the type of purpose we're seeing from Forever Young and his connections.

Undefeated in three starts, Forever Young won a pair of starts in his native Japan as a 2-year-old before shipping to Saudi Arabia and capturing the Saudi Derby (G3) by a nose over U.S. stakes winner Book'em Danno.

Now he takes on the Preakness Stakes distance of 1 3/16 miles in the UAE Derby (G2) as a prep for the Kentucky Derby. As of Tuesday of Dubai World Cup week, the Real Steel colt was 3-2 with European bookmakers, which means he is unlikely to offer value in pari-mutuel markets come Saturday.

Still, this is an exciting colt worth watching, given the fervor with which connections have targeted the Kentucky Derby at the end of this Middle Eastern trail. Personally, I am not a fan of the UAE Derby as a prep for the Kentucky Derby, but if Forever Young wins this then he will be among the top five choices on May 4 at Churchill Downs and will have a chance of being favored depending who wins the U.S.-based prep races.

Speaking of U.S.-based variables, Pandagate is the main American representative in the UAE Derby. He looked good winning the Gander Stakes against fellow New York-breds, but this would be a big step forward given the class, distance and ship. Still, if Forever Young is overbet, maybe down to odds on, then Pandagate is a fine alternative given how well Book'em Danno ran in Riyadh.

I've typically never met an Aidan O'Brien-trained horse I don't like, but Henry Adams does not excite me. The connections will take money, and this is asking a lot of a colt who has been up to only seven furlongs and has no real marquee win to date.