2 prices can ‘Outrun the Odds’ on Saturday at Keeneland
Although the final weekend before the Breeders’ Cup doesn’t feature quite the same star power as the upcoming championship races, there are still some long shots worth considering for your wagers. These two prices on Saturday at Keeneland have a chance to outrun the odds.
In this allowance race routing on turf for 2-year-olds, No. 4 Otago is an interesting long shot. Making his third career start, this will be his second time running on the grass.
Otago has yet to win a race on the turf, but in his debut at Colonial, he did run third going one mile. His next two races were both rained off the turf. He broke his maiden at Pimlico going 1 1/16 miles and then returned to run second in the off-the-turf Laurel Futurity behind Congruent. Congruent is being pointed toward the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
This is a horse that has shown some early speed but also the ability to rate. I like that he’s been “turf-meant” in all of his races and finally returns to what may be his preferred surface. He’s a half to a multiple graded-stakes winner on the turf in Mom’s On Strike, so with some early presence and a return to the grass, No. 4 Otago could spice up the exotics.
Race 8, No. 10 Fuerteventura (15-1)
In the Bryan Station Stakes (G3), No. 10 Fuerteventura has some potential to upset the field. This competitive group of 12 with 4 also eligibles features recognizable names such as No. 8 Wit (3-1) and No. 5 Classic Causeway (4-1). Even No. 1 Ready to Purrform (5-1) is also a graded stakes winner.
Fuerteventura was last seen at Kentucky Downs finishing second in the Gun Runner Stakes. In every route race on the grass in which he’s competed, he’s hit the board, so the consistency must be respected.
Going a mile on the turf in the Jersey Derby at Monmouth in May, Fuerteventura posted the slight upset in a small field of five. Running second was Celestial City, recent winner of the Hill Prince (G2) at Belmont at the Big A. Those two were matched again in the Saranac (G3) at Saratoga in September, finishing in a dead heat for second behind Annapolis. Annapolis returned to win the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1) against older foes a few weeks ago and will be competing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile.
This is a horse that has been facing quality competition and running consistently well. Jockey John Velazquez rides for the first time, and this Jonathan Thomas trainee fits well with this group to at least hit the board.