Fair odds: Road to Ruby Steaks begins with Prevue opportunity

It is completely understandable why anyone would land on no. 1 Vote No as their choice to win the Turfway Prevue Stakes on Saturday at Turfway Park. 

The Morey family's Divisidero gelding broke his maiden winning on debut on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs before winning the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs and finishing third in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland to close out his 2-year-old season.

But he's not for me.

None of his three races are remotely competitive with the best of what we've seen from others in this field, and none of his Brisnet Speed or Pace ratings have hit par for this type of race. (Click the link for free Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances.)

He can win, of course, but the 9-5 price would be a tremendous underlay on my fair odds.

So where to go? No. 3 Joe Shiesty is 2-1 on the morning line and 5-2 on my fair odds, and no. 4 Quarrymen is 5-1 on the morning line and 3-1 on my fair odds. That means the latter is more likely to be a better bet, but I expect the former to be in my wagering mix as well.

Joe Shiesty was dismissed on debut at Churchill Downs but took a lot more money second out ahead of a troubled trip. Then he blitzed eight others when breaking his maiden for a cheaper purse. Although class will certainly be tested here, the numbers say he belongs with this group, and there certainly were excuses in the previous two starts.

Quarrymen was odds-on in all three maiden starts, and he broke through on his third try off a small layoff. A second-place finish in his Turfway debut to close out his juvenile season was solid, and he can improve off that.

Based on expected prices, Quarrymen is the likely win bet, but because I like Vote No so little as the morning-line favorite, and likely no worse than co-favorite, I'm willing to use Joe Shiesty in multi-race wagers as well. 

Of the rest, only no. 6 Ceepeegee is a total throwout. I'll peek at exactas involving nos. 2, 5 and 7 with 3 and 4.

The Prevue is part of a series of stakes races that continues with the Leonatus Stakes on Jan. 20 at a mile and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (G3) on March 2 at 1 1/16 miles. It concludes with the Jeff Ruby Steaks at 1 1/8 miles and 200 Kentucky Derby points on the line, including 100 to the winner. The Battaglia offers 42 points, including 20 to the winner.

Coverage of the Turfway Park winter meet at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.