Turfway Park's exotic payouts are best in the country
When it comes to the final five weeks of the year since 2022, no track has higher payouts than Turfway Park, which opens its holiday meet Wednesday in Florence, Ky.
With an average field size of 12.9 before scratches (492 entered across 38 races) opening week, that trend is likely to continue.
The above graphic shows the average payout of the first three weeks of the holiday meet last year. Looking at similar time periods over the last three years shows that Turfway leads the nation in average $1 payouts for win ($8.03), exacta ($77.91), trifecta ($980), double ($76.51) and Pick 4 ($10,743). It ranks second behind Oaklawn in both Pick 3 and Pick 5, and average pick 5 payout is suppressed by consolations.
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So what accounts for these big payouts? The symbiotic relationship between field size and winning favorites helps. Turfway's average field size this time of year is 10.6, one more horse than Oaklawn at 9.6. Favorites do win a bit more (31%) at Turfway than Oaklawn (27 percent) but the average win payout is higher at Turfway.
Also, even at 10 horses vs. nine horses, that is 25% more exacta combinations, 42% more trifecta combinations, 37% more Pick 3 and 52% more Pick 4 combinations.
That is not to say favorites don't win or shouldn't be a part of your wagering strategy. Last year's first Pick 5 of the meet began with an odds-on favorite and had no other winner pay more than $9.50. And although that payout was only $218.04 for 50 cents, that was still nearly double the parlay.
There is a big favorite Wednesday night at Turfway in the key fifth race. I say "key" because it is both the last leg of the early Pick 5 and first leg of the late Pick 5, as well as the second leg of jackpot Pick 6, last leg of early Pick 4 and part of a trio of Pick 3s). I am against that favorite and hoping to be live to a decent score. You can follow along at the live stream below.
One last thing to note in general: December has the highest average payouts of any month. It is truly the "get out" month for the year.
Average $1 Pick 4 payouts
2022-25, last five weeks only