Turf to dirt: Casse’s Can Group is at fork in Kentucky Derby road

After responding to ho-hum results on dirt with graded-stakes success on turf, a return to the main track for Can Group on Saturday in the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds looks like a roll of the dice.

For Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, a gamble like this is not unusual. Especially with a young colt.

“Anybody who follows us (knows) we don’t put a lot of emphasis on the first couple starts,” he said this week.

From those distant, third-place results last summer at Ellis Park, the $100,000 son of Good Samaritan who is owned by Leonard and Lois Green’s D J Stable and Chuck Zacney’s Cash Is King added three turf races to his past performances last year, most notably collecting a win at Keeneland Oct. 8 in the 1 1/16-mile Bourbon (G2).

This weekend Can Group will be ridden for the first time by Jareth Loveberry and will carry 6-1 morning-line odds in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte, a Kentucky Derby 2024 prep that is worth 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the first five finishers.

Coming off a 2 1/2-month break since a rally from last place to finish fourth in the one-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita, Casse thinks Can Group has some positives that are lining up at what might be just the right time this weekend in New Orleans.

“He trains really well over the dirt,” Casse said in a phone interview from Florida for Friday’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod. “He’s just a super, super moving horse. Obviously, he won the Bourbon, and he ran very well in the Breeders’ Cup. But we want to just give him one more try on the dirt and figured the sooner we do that, the better.”

Players zeroing in on those two early races at Ellis Park will notice Can Group drifted farther and farther from the pace as those sprints went on. Then came a seven-furlong, $150,000 race on the turf at Kentucky Downs and jockey Francisco Arrieta’s decisive, wide move in the stretch to a 2 1/2-length, maiden-breaking triumph.

The development of that deep-closing style was even more evident at Keeneland, where Arrieta and Can Group spotted the early leaders 7 3/4 lengths before charging from last in a seven-wide trip down the stretch to win the Bourbon by a half-length and pay $56.34 to win.

Can Group was last again through the first half of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before he made his big charge under Flavien Prat to finish fourth, just two lengths behind the winner Unquestionable.

“He’s a different horse now than he was when he made his first two starts,” Casse said. “Where that lands him on Saturday, I don’t know. We just want to give him another start.”

The Lecomte’s 1 1/16-mile distance, the same as the Bourbon, plays to Can Group’s ability to close from deep.

“The key with him is he wants to come with a big run,” Casse said. “That doesn’t work when you’re running short on the dirt, so I think it’s a good race. It’s obviously not an easy race.”

Track Phantom, the 9-5 morning-line favorite for trainer Steve Asmussen, and Nash, the 5-2 second choice for Brad Cox, finished first and third, respectively, last month in the Gun Runner Stakes. They will be covering the same course and distance Saturday in the Lecomte, and they are likely to be forward early.

That is another factor Casse said was lining up in Can Group’s favor.

“I think it’s a great spot,” he said. “There’s plenty of speed. He’s going to lumber along back of the pack. Either he’s going to come running, or he’s not going to come running. If he doesn’t come running, you’ll see him on turf from this point on. If he does come running, that opens up a lot of avenues.”

If those avenues were to lead to a run for the roses May 4, Can Group carries odds of 125-1 in the Las Vegas futures market for the Kentucky Derby.

The Lecomte is a fork in the road for Can Group. For Casse, who is enshrined in the U.S. and Canada racing halls of fame, this is nothing new.

“I’ve always said that training racehorses is like putting together a puzzle,” he said. “It’s actually on my plaque in the (U.S.) Hall of Fame. We’re going to try a couple new pieces. If they don’t fit, then we know he has a big career on the turf.”

As for the dirt for Can Group?

“We wanted to give him one more shot,” Casse said. “One more try.”