Turf Mile guide: Odds, picks, analysis for Breeders' Cup prep
The Grade 1, $1 million Turf Mile at Keeneland not only serves as a potential preview of the Breeders' Cup Mile, but we get a window into how some of the best of the U.S. compare to better horses from Europe. With that in mind, all eyes will be on the clash between Up to the Mark (no. 5, 5-2), who has won four of five this year including wins in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and Grade 1 Manhattan, and Master of the Seas (no. 1, 2-1), the Charlie Appleby shipper who dominated the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile three weeks ago at 2-5 odds.
Looking for a winner?
Don't fret, we've got you covered with Super Screener picks (including a surprising top pick), Ed DeRosa's fair odds plays and Horse Racing Nation expert picks.
But before we get into the picks, let's take a look at the best speed figures of 2023 for this group. If you want to check out HRN's Free Past Performances page, you can download free PPs courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
Before we get into the picks, let's take a look at the best speed figures of 2023 for this group.
| # | Horse | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Master of the Seas | 104 | 128 | 111 |
| 2 | Indestructible | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 3 | Stitched | 94 | 125 | 111 |
| 4 | Set Piece | 100 | 123 | 119 |
| 5 | Up to the Mark | 105 | 127 | 116 |
| 6 | English Bee | 95 | 123 | 107 |
| 7 | Atone | 103 | 124 | 106 |
| 8 | Harlan Estate | 97 | 122 | 108 |
| 9 | Annapolis | 100 | 126 | 113 |
Turf Mile handicapping and picks
The Super Screener does a great job pointing out live runners and long shot plays every weekend. Mike Shutty nailed Candied at 4-1 Friday as the top pick in the Alcibiades (G1), and has analyzed 14 stakes for Saturday's races with more to come for Sunday.
Shutty notes that Annapolis (6-1) could be overlooked here bouncing back from Kentucky Downs and getting and advantaged trip near the lead on a softer pace this time. Now is the perfect time to jump in as there's also a great Super Screener deal where you can get all of the Breeders' Cup preps starting from here through the Breeders' Cup for one low price.
Ed DeRosa's Turf Mile fair odds highlight Master of the Seas at 5-2 so that's one definitely to watch on the board for the right price. Here is the complete list of his fair odds:
How does the course play?
The HRN track trends tool does a great job showing you how every track, surface and distance plays. Looking at turf routes at Keeneland over the last three years, we can see that inside post positions are a slight upgrade but overall the turf is playing very fair.
Who is hot?
Looking at hot trainers, we can see a few of the Keeneland trainers with horses running Saturday that have been hot lately. These stats include their runners across the country and North America. It is worth noting that Jorge Delgado, who has European import Indestructible (no. 2, 8-1) in the Turf Mile has been scorching hot lately saddling winners with five of his last 10 starters.
What do pools look like?
Finally, let's have a peek at some of those huge Keeneland pools and payoffs we've been accustomed to seeing. These are average Keeneland pools and payoffs for Saturday racing only for the last two years.
Here is the full field for Saturday's Turf Mile at Keeneland, set for race no. 10 with a post time of 5:45 p.m. ET.