Turf Classic fair odds: Derby city will be Brown town

I generally favor coupled entries more than most horseplayers, but I really wish they were in play for the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

The race before the Kentucky Derby features a field of 12 grass males going 1 1/8 miles for a million bucks. It is tough to separate the horses, so I looked to their human connections to separate them. That led me to Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown.

Based on fair odds, I give Chad Brown a 5-2 chance of winning this race with Spirit of St Louis the more likely of the pair and most likely of the dozen as well. Winner of the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), Spirit of St. Louis disappointed as the 7-5 favorite when fourth in the Muniz Memorial Classic (G2) presented by Horse Racing Nation. He kind of stalled a bit and should run better here.

Redistricting also was in the Muniz and flattened after getting shuffled a bit during his rally. That was his first start off a layoff, though, and his best race last year came second off the layoff. Also worth noting is that Irad Ortiz Jr. returns to the saddle, and he is 2-for-2 aboard this son of Kingman.

I anticipate at least one of these horses will be a fair price, but fair odds on them as an entry would be about 5-2, which I definitely think we'd get, hence my lament that they're not coupled.

I am fading Integration, who was no match for Carl Spackler last out. Granted, that was an other-worldly performance from the multiple Grade 1 winner, but Integration did not move forward off that Pegasus, and this is a pretty quick turnaround.