Tuesday's Best Bet: Backwheel Forbidden Topic in Mountaineer allowance
Handicapper: Reinier
Macatangay
Track: Mountaineer
Race 8 – Post Time 9:34 p.m. ET
Night racing at Mountaineer can be fun at times. Bettors need to keep an eye on the tote board if they bet this track, as larger gamblers tend to play games with the pools on a daily basis. Other than that, it is fine for players.
In Race 8, there are eight horses and one also-eligible ready to go in a six-furlong event on the main track. The analysis will focus on a closer who deserves a look from trifecta players who like backwheeling.
#8 Forbidden Topic (8-1) – Pointing out horses who can hit the board without winning can sound strange. In a lot of cases, the horse that fits this category is a closer who only needs to pick off tired horses late. This horse fits the category. In his Mountaineer debut, he picked off horses late and finished a closing third, without threatening to win. As long as there is a moderate to fast pace, he can do the same here and add some value underneath. Most of his low 90s TimeformUS numbers fit well.
#3 Moovin on Machen (3-1) – This runner is consistent, hitting the board in 9 out of 11 lifetime starts. He finished second in his 2018 debut with a 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure, confirming his solid 2017 form is still intact. Now he makes his second start off the bench, which is usually a good angle.
#5 Creative Story (6-1) – He deserves some space in this analysis because of the eight-length win two starts back. It came against maiden company, but one thing to note is the additional nine-length margin from second to third. Because this gelding is only 3-years-old, there is plenty of room for improvement.
#7 Cobra Kid (6-1) – While it is never a good sign to see a speed horse blow an uncontested lead, TimeformUS awarded a 101 Speed Figure for the effort. If he repeats the number in this spot, he should win the race. Forbidden Topic came at him late, although this runner did all the work up front.
#1 Take the Crepe (10-1) – Despite the two recent flops, he gets some space for his numbers last year. Most of them are good enough to win. Can he return to form? At 5-year-olds, this gelding is still young enough.
#2 Blame the Kids (5/2) – Trainer statistics are too high to ignore. He must be considered.
The Plays:
Trifecta – 1,2,3,5,7 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 / 8
Exacta (optional as a hedge bet) – 1,2,3,5,7 / 8