Travers fair odds: Who is the alternative to Sovereignty?

Let's get the platitudes out of the way tout suite. Sovereignty is the best 3-year-old in training and is not only the most likely winner of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga but also the most likely division champion come Eclipse Awards time.

But most likely does not always mean best bet, and so it goes in the Travers with ace linemaker David Aragona hanging 2-5 on the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner. If Sovereignty is in fact that price, then he will be the shortest price since American Pharoah was 7-20 in 2015. If Sovereignty ends up below that threshold, then he will be the shortest Travers price since Easy Goer in 1989. Bernardini in 2006 and Street Sense in 2007 both were 7-20 as well.

For 2-5 to be a fair price, Sovereignty would have to win this race 71.4% of the time. Although I do think he wins this more than half, my fair odds of 4-5 make him a terrible play in this spot.

So who are the alternatives? Magnitude is the most likely winner of the rest, but I have concerns he might be underlaid as well, given Aragona's 2-1 line against my 3-1 fair odds. Still, his Risen Star (G2) blitz was probably the best Kentucky Derby prep performance of anyone's, and although he was sidelined for the rest of the Triple Crown season, his Iowa Derby did not dissuade the notion that he can control these types of races.

One wrinkle in the Magnitude plan is that both Bracket Buster and Strategic Focus are tactical enough to be involved early. The real question is whether they are brilliant enough to see out the 1 1/4 miles against the best of their generation.

At these prices, I am willing to answer that maybe they are.

Strategic Focus should continue to improve in his fourth career start while continuing to stretch out. I would not like his pattern going into a race such as the Kentucky Derby, but against just four others he should be able to relax a bit. I'll be watching the board to see if he's worth a play.

Bracket Buster is a total long-shot flutter, but the price might be right, and liking him makes it feasible to use Sovereignty in the gimmicks. An exacta with the favorite over Bracket Buster conceivably could offer more value than betting Bracket Buster to win, depending on how those pools are bet.