Travers: Workout analyst is blunt about final breezes & form

Thorpedo Anna looks like she wants to run and run and run. It showed in the way she galloped off the screen as trainer Kenny McPeek shot video of her Wednesday morning on the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga.

That was not for nothing, a prominent form and workout analyst said Wednesday evening. He also saw it in a 59.81-second, five-furlong breeze last weekend in preparation for Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes.

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“Thorpedo Anna was very, very keen in her work with (stablemate) Elko County,” said Bruno De Julio, whose website Bruno With the Works applies morning analysis to afternoon handicapping. “To compound that there was a horse that was in front of her, and she went after that horse too. She’s over the top. She’s basically all on go.”

Is that a good thing or a bad thing as Thorpedo Anna tries to become the first filly in 109 years to win the Travers?

“You know what that reminds me of?” De Julio said. “American Pharoah when he came over to run in the Travers. He galloped (six furlongs) back-to-back days, and he was going 13 and change (per furlong).”

That was nine years ago, when the Triple Crown winner’s Friday gallop attracted more than 10,000 people to Saratoga. The next day, still keyed up, American Pharoah lost to Keen Ice by three-quarters of a length in the Travers. It was only the second loss in a Hall of Fame career that ended triumphantly two months later in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Whether history repeats itself or whether Thorpedo Anna is ready to uncork an indelible moment might not be so much about her raw talent, De Julio said. It could come down to what is going on between her ears.

“I’m seeing behavior that is not conducive for a horse to have their best effort forward mentally,” De Julio said. “Not physically. Mentally.”

In nearly four decades of analyzing horse flesh, De Julio has been known for being blunt. He showed it as he delved into last week’s final workouts for the whole Travers field.

Dornoch. The Belmont Stakes and Haskell (G1) winner went four furlongs in 47.65 seconds Saturday in company. “He’s going to go with Ringy Dingy where Ringy Dingy goes,” De Julio said. “If Ringy Dingy would have gone down to the Stewart’s Shop (convenience store), he would have gone with him, because that’s what Dornoch does. I’m watching Dornoch come down the lane, and his left ear is cocked. He’s waiting on Ringy Dingy. They’re going to get to the wire, and guess what? Dornoch takes two strides, and puts his head in front. Now he shuts down. He’s going to go get a coffee at the Stewart’s Shop. He did gallop out and do a lot more under a loose rein, but he’s not going to be a horse that’s going to go 59 and be pretty. (Trainer Danny) Gargan doesn’t want to go 59 and change, because he his horse is fit. He just ran a mile-and-an-eighth (last month) in the Haskell.”

Fierceness. The Eclipse Award winner who has an on-again, off-again résumé is coming off a victory going 1 1/8 miles in the Jim Dandy (G2) over the same track where the 1 1/4-mile Travers will be run. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he went a half-mile in 48.22 seconds last weekend in company with Bright Future. “They’re going slow,” De Julio said as he watched the video. “They went 24 and 4 for the first quarter, and Bright Future is a stayer. He can’t go with Fierceness’s speed. They came home in 23 and 3. Now they’re going to gallop out three-quarters. Bright Future is being kind of pushed on, and Fierceness is going to do his thing. This is what he does. He beats up on slow horses in the morning. They want him to dominate and get confidence.” De Julio said that can be deceiving to casual onlookers. “People are going, ‘Oooo.’ But that other horse is not fast enough to keep up with him.”

Sierra Leone. The deep closer who finished second in the Kentucky Derby, third in the Belmont and second in the Jim Dandy breezed a half-mile in 49.20 seconds for trainer Chad Brown last Saturday. “He’s steady,” De Julio said. “What he really needs is for everybody to fall down in front of him. He’s just not that fast. I think Chad has got him about as good as he can be.”

Unmatched Wisdom. Working with Commander of Truth on Friday, the other Brown entry in the Travers went five furlongs in 1:00.41. De Julio, however, underscored something that he felt was more important in analyzing the 3-for-3 colt. He said Unmatched Wisdom’s July 19 win in the Curlin Stakes is overrated. “I think handicappers don’t read conditions,” De Julio said. “It’s a race for 3-year-olds who have not won a graded sweepstakes of a mile or more (this year). That means it’s a regular allowance race. The horse has never faced this kind of class before.” De Julio noted that after V. E. Day won both races in 2014, the six Curlin winners since who started in the Travers finished no better than sixth.

Honor Marie. A 50.50-second, half-mile workout in company with Stowaway on Saturday was not going to dissuade De Julio from his feeling about the Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up. “That was a race where they all fell apart, and he came running and finished second (to Catching Freedom). He should’ve won, maybe. There was a Chad Brown (Tuscan Gold) that finished third. He ran in the Preakness and ran nowhere (8 1/4 lengths back in fourth).”

Batten Down. Breezing in company with Bendoog, the Juddmonte-bred, Bill Mott-trained colt went five furlongs Saturday in 1:01.85. That evoked thoughts about Batten Down’s full brother who won only 4 of 17 races but still bankrolled $4,267,350 in purse money. “He makes Tacitus proud,” De Julio said. “I don’t know what he tried to do (in the Jim Dandy). He dove down like he was going to go crashing into Sierra Leone. My thought is Júnior Alvarado wanted to take him down to get Sierra Leone to run. He forgot he’s a full to Tacitus. He is the heir in line to the hanger-of-the-year award.”

Corporate Power. Breezing Friday for Shug McGaughey with stablemate Act of Mutiny, the Curlin runner-up worked a half-mile in 47.44 seconds. “I have a ton of respect for Shug, but you know there’s a but coming,” De Julio said. “He gets these really good horses that are well-bred, and they want to run around like two miles. Corporate Power was slow, and again, he was coming out of that restricted stakes. No stakes winner was in that field. Again, handicappers do not read the conditions of the races. They’ll say, ‘He won the Curlin. It’s a prep for the Travers.’ Well, it’s not.”

In eliminating slow horses from his list of potential Travers winners, De Julio is a man of conviction. He also is a man with a six-year-old warning.

“Having said that,” he said, “Catholic Boy did win the Travers.”