Travers 2023 fair-odds preview: Finding Forte’s worth Saturday

One of the most anticipated matchups in recent memory is set to take place on Saturday at Saratoga where the Grade 1 Travers is expected to feature last year’s champion 2-year-old male Forte taking on this year’s Triple Crown race winners.

The draw for the midsummer derby is Tuesday evening, but the contenders are well known. In addition to the aforementioned quartet, my Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes and Haskell (G1) pick is in the mix.

As the Paddock Prince and I discussed in the video below, we’re unclear how the public is going to bet this race, except that champion Forte will be favored with Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo the next two choices.

After that is anyone’s guess, but as for my opinion, I have to think it shades toward a bet on Mage, as there is no way Forte is 3-1 or higher. Talent-wise, this trio is pretty evenly matched with the edge for me going to Mage because he had a prep for this whereas Arcangelo did not, and he’ll be a higher price than Forte.

Granted, Forte was far impressive in his prep for this than Mage was in his, but the same could be said for this pair going into the Kentucky Derby. And although Forte did not get a chance in that, Mage showed he can move forward off a prep, so at the disparity in prices I see him as the play.

Of course, there’s a chance that the public is overzealous on Forte and all of the classic winners, including Preakness winner National Treasure. If that’s the case, then Tapit Trice becomes the likely play. Yes, that Haskell was disappointing, but so was the Derby and he bounced back from that to get a nice figure in the Belmont and now gets a new jockey. 

We’ll be back this week with actual wagering strategy.