Travers Stakes fair odds: Pace makes the play Saturday

I know, I know. Taking horses who lose races at 17-10 and 4-5 behind horses who are in this race as well is probably a long-term losing proposition. But there are differences between the Grade 1 Travers Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga and those losses in the Belmont and Jim Dandy (G2), respectively.

First, Sierra Leone is unlikely to be favored. He is the fourth choice on David Aragona's morning line, but even if he ends up favored, I still think he'll be value against my fair odds. In other words, if he is favored then it will be a blanket board with the top four choices all between 7-2 and 4-1.

That is unlikely, though. Dornoch is the morning-line favorite, which makes sense off his Belmont and Haskell (G1) wins. Fierceness could go favored based on the fervor over last year's champion 2-year-old male and that he won the Jim Dandy in his most recent start.

Then, of course, there is the filly Thorpedo Anna, who has won all four of her starts this year by a combined 18 3/4 lengths, and horses she has beaten easily this year finished 1-2 in the Alabama (G1).

The novelty of a filly against colts is certain to attract money, and while I have her in the category of one of the obvious four who can win, she is sure to be an underlay.

So that's the betting. What about the running? It's Occam's Razor for me. There's plenty of speed, and although Sierra Leone is not the only closer, he's certainly the best closer. And it's not as if this is just trip handicapping. He's plenty fast enough. His figures are below Fierceness at that one's best, but they're right there or better than everyone else.

In a race where many bettors are going to be inclined to "cover" with multiple logicals, if not all four of them, or maybe get cute with long shots I give every little chance too, I think there's value in singling Sierra Leone here.