Travers Stakes 2025: Odds and analysis for midsummer Derby

Saratoga Springs, N. Y.

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers drew a field of five that features the country’s top-ranked Thoroughbred, Sovereignty. The winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes is the only one from this field of 3-year-olds who has run at the classic 1 1/4-mile distance. Accordingly, he was made the 2-5 favorite on the morning-line odds at Saratoga.

The five-horse field is the smallest in the Travers since 1994, when Holy Bull was the winner. For three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023, Essential Quality, Epicenter and Arcangelo won the mid-summer derby and went on to be named the champion of the 3-year-old male division.

Javier Castellano, who is the leading rider in Travers history with seven wins does not have a mount this year. John Velazquez has three wins between 2005 and his most recent in 2024 with Fierceness. Luis Saez had a victory in 2021 with Essential Quality and also in 2013.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Travers with the official track morning-line odds. The mid-summer derby is scheduled as race 13 of 14 with post time set for 6:14 p.m. EDT.

1. Magnitude, 2-1. Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Ben Curtis – 8: 4-1-0 - $596,165. Magnitude broke his maiden last summer at Ellis Park in his second start and then moved onto the Kentucky Derby trail where he tried three times, with his best result being a second in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds. Amid that sequence he won an allowance at Churchill Downs in November. This year, the son of hot sire Not This Time had a breakthrough victory in the Risen Star (G2) by almost 10 lengths with a front-end effort. But an injury sidelined him through the Triple Crown series. He returned last month in the Iowa Derby, where he again rolled to win by open lengths and earned another speed figure that can compare to the favorite in this race. Steve Asmussen is the only trainer in this field with a Travers victory, which came in 2022 with Epicenter. Win contender.

2. Bracket Buster, 20-1. Vekoma – Vickie Oliver / Luis Saez – 8: 2-1-1 - $286,318. Bracket Buster broke his maiden in his third try at Keeneland in October. He then was fifth in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill and second in the Lexington (G3) in his two tries on the Derby trail. In June, he was the winner of the Pegasus at Monmouth Park on a sloppy and sealed track as he prepped for the Haskell Stakes (G1). Bracket Buster was last seen in that big race at the Jersey Shore track, where he was on the lead briefly and faded to fourth. Toss.

3. Strategic Focus, 6-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 3: 1-1-1 - $82,200. Strategic Focus is the most lightly raced horse in the field with only three starts. He won his debut at Aqueduct in April going a mile as part of an odds-on entry from Chad Brown. In the June Saratoga meeting the son of Gun Runner ran for the second time in a two-turn allowance and finished first but was disqualified to second for interference in the stretch when he raced greenly. Strategic Focus next ran in the Curlin at Saratoga where he had the lead at the stretch call but ended up third. Blinkers go on to try to correct issues during the final stages of his last two races. Flavien Prat will stay on board. Win contender.

4. Sovereignty, 2-5. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 8: 5-2-0 - $5,147,800. Sovereignty is the only Grade 1 winner in the field, and his total purse money of $5.1 million is more than twice what the rest of the field combined to win. He broke his maiden in his third race on the Derby trail in the Street Sense. The Godolphin homebred won four of his last five races, with his only loss being a second in the Florida Derby (G1). In the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Jim Dandy (G2), Sovereignty defeated Journalism and Baeza, who rank as the second and third best 3-year-olds. Hall of fame trainer Bill Mott will try to win the Travers for the first time. Top pick.

5. McAfee, 20-1. Cloud Computing – Rick Dutrow / John Velazquez – 7: 1-3-1 - $280,880. McAfee comes to the Travers with a maiden victory as his one trip to the winner’s circle. But since that win in his first career start as a 2-year-old, he finished in the top three four times. That includes his last three starts in Grade 3 stakes in the Peter Pan, the Ohio Derby and the West Virginia Derby. Hall of fame jockey John Velazquez stays on board. Use underneath.

Summary: Sovereignty is the horse to beat in the Travers. He is far above the rest of the field in almost every way that handicappers rate horses and deserves to be a 2-5 morning line favorite.

Magnitude is the morning-line second choice at 2-1 based on his open-length victories in his last two starts. The speed figures that he earned compare favorably to those of Sovereignty.

But the horses who Magnitude defeated in the Risen Star and the Iowa Derby do not come close to the likes of Journalism and Baeza and the fields of the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes and the Jim Dandy, which Sovereignty defeated. Sovereignty is the top pick.