Travers Stakes analysis: Who will emerge as top 3-year-old?

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday drew a field of seven 3-year-olds, including the winners of the Triple Crown races for the first time since 2017 and last year’s 2-year-old champion.

Five of the horses are millionaires with Grade 1 victories in the field, and there's a Grade 3 winner and another with a recent restricted stakes score at Saratoga.

The Travers is carded as race 12 on a 13-race program, which also includes four other Grade 1s, the Forego, H. Allen Jerkens Memorial,  Ballerina and Sword Dancer Invitational.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Travers with the official track morning-line odds from Saratoga oddsmaker David Aragona. The Travers has a scheduled post time if 6:11 p.m. EDT.

1. Forte, 7-5. Violence – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 9: 7-1-0 - $2,954,830. Forte is the reigning 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. As a 3-year-old, the son of Violence won 3 of 4 starts with a second in the Belmont Stakes after a 10-week layoff from a minor issue that caused him to miss the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He added blinkers for the first time before the Jim Dandy (G2), which helped him to stay focused during a rough trip as he got up for victory by a nose. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Travers in 2011 with Stay Thirsty and with Flower Alley in 2005. The one to beat.

2. Arcangelo, 5-1. Arrogate – Jena Antonucci / Javier Castellano – 5: 3-1-0 - $1,067,400. Arcangelo is the Belmont Stakes winner and the winner of his last three starts, a March maiden victory at Gulfstream Park and then graded stakes scores in the Peter Pan (G3) and the third leg of the Triple Crown at odds of 7.90-1. The gray son of Arrogate has trained up to the Travers. Jockey Javier Castellano will try to win aboard Arcangelo for the fourth time in a row. Top choice.

3. Tapit Trice, 12-1. Tapit – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 8: 4-0-2 - $1,063,650. Tapit Trice won the Blue Grass (G1) to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished seventh. Since then the gray son of Tapit was third in the Belmont Stakes and fifth in the Haskell (G1). Pletcher will put blinkers on Tapit Trice for the first time, hoping to get him to break from the gate more alertly and to stay focused throughout the race. Jose Ortiz will get on board for the first time since Luis Saez has opted to ride Mage. He will go to post with the highest odds of his career. Live long shot.

4. Mage, 4-1. Good Magic – Gustavo Delgado / Luis Saez – 6: 2-2-1 - $2,488,700. Mage won the Kentucky Derby in the fourth start of a career that began in January 2023 at odds of 15.21-1 when he rallied from 16th place in the early going. That was only the second win of his career although he did finish second in the Florida Derby (G1) on the Kentucky Derby trail. Luis Saez, who rode Mage in that race at Gulfstream, will get back on after Castellano opted to ride Arcangelo. Since the first Saturday in May, Mage was third in the Preakness as the favorite and then second in the Haskell. Mage will try to get his first victory since the Kentucky Derby. Win contender.

5. National Treasure, 8-1. Quality Road – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 7: 2-1-2 - $1,365,000. National Treasure was the Preakness winner, his first and only victory as a 3-year-old. That was after a third in the Sham (G3) and a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Both of his victories were with front-end efforts. In the Belmont Stakes he set the pace for about six furlongs but then tired badly to finish sixth behind three horses who are in the Travers. He has been training at Del Mar, and regular rider John Velazquez stays on board. The blinkers come off for the Travers. Bob Baffert won the Travers with West Coast in 2017, Arrogate in 2016 and Point Given in 2001. Toss.

6. Disarm, 8-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 8: 2-2-2 - $750,200. Disarm won the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs in June after he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Most recently, the son of Gun Runner was a non-threatening fourth in the Jim Dandy. Disarm was a maiden winner at Saratoga as a 2-year-old. Trainer Steve Asmussen, who won the Travers last year with Epicenter, puts blinkers on Disarm for the first time after his disappointing performance in the Jim Dandy. Toss.

7. Scotland, 12-1. Good Magic – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 4: 3-1-0 - $211,210. Scotland won the restricted Curlin in his first try in a stakes race in a career that began in March. He won at Saratoga with a front-end effort after racing from behind in his first three starts. His four starts were at four racetracks. Trainer Bill Mott has yet to win the Travers. Toss.

Summary: Leadership of the 3-year-old division is up for grabs in the Travers, with Forte, Mage, Arcangelo and National Treasure looking to secure that top spot with a victory in the midsummer derby. Those four are the top choices in the morning line and present a difficult handicapping decision.

The deciding factor could be Javier Castellano, who will try to win the Travers for a record seventh time. He is 3-for-3 aboard Arcangelo and chose him over Mage. Among Castellano’s Travers victories was the upset of American Pharoah in 2015 aboard Keen Ice at odds of 16-1. His six wins in the Travers ranged in odds from .35-1 on Bernardini in 2006 to 19.5-1 on Afleet Express in 2010.

For the Travers exacta, put Arcangelo with Forte.