Odds and analysis: 5-way battle for second in Travers

The 3-year-old division leader Essential Quality is back in action in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday. The near perfect record of the son of Tapit earned him the spot as the 4-5 morning line favorite in a field of seven that will race the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles.

In recent years, Travers winners West Coast, Arrogate, and Will Take Charge went on to be named 3-year-old champions. Arrogate also won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in his next start that same year.

In 2015, Keen Ice upset the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Midsummer Derby. Looking back at the past 10 years, three favorites won the Travers, including Tiz the Law in 2020.

Here is a full-field analysis of the Whitney, which is slated as race 12 out of 13, with the official Saratoga morning-line odds.

1. Midnight Bourbon (9-2 – Tiznow – Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 10: 2-3-3 - $673,920) In 10 career starts, Midnight Bourbon hit the board in eight, with the exceptions coming in the Kentucky Derby and the controversial Haskell (G1). Sixth in the Derby is not a negative and at Monmouth Park the son of Tiznow was fortunate to avoid serious injury when he was cut off in the stretch by Hot Rod Charlie. He won the Lecomte (G3) in January and has not found the winner’s circle since then. Like a few others, there is no reason that he will not run well again. Trainer Steve Asmussen seeks his first win in the Midsummer Derby. Second place choice.

2. Essential Quality (4-5 – Tapit – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 8: 7-0-0 - $3,545,144) Essential Quality is just one length in the Kentucky Derby away from having a perfect 8-for-8 record. His seven victories – which include three Grade 1s, two Grade 2s and a Grade 3 – tower over the rest of this field. The Brad Cox trainee is the reigning 2-year-old champion, and a win in the Travers would lock up the 3-year-old championship. I mention these achievements because Essential Quality is simply that much better than this field. His detractors would say that he struggled to win the Jim Dandy (G2) in his most recent start and that makes him vulnerable in here. It is not easy to cut back from the 12 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes (G1) to the nine furlongs of his victory in the Travers prep race. Essential Quality is not the kind of horse that racks up big winning margins, he just keeps on winning races against the best of the division. Top choice.

3. Keepmeinmind (6-1 – Laoban – Robertino Diodoro / Joel Rosario – 10: 1-3-2 - $654,987) Keepmeinmind has earned $654,000 in 10 starts but he still has only a maiden victory to his credit. Since that first win, he ran in nine graded stakes with five top three finishes, including the recent second in the Jim Dandy (G2). He handled the 10-furlong distance in the Run for the Roses when he made up ground after a slow start. Keepmeinmind figures to be running down the stretch at Saratoga which cannot be said for many others in this field. Exacta finish possible.

4. Dynamic One (6-1 – Union Rags – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 2-2-0 - $260,120) Dynamic One got his first stakes win when he rallied from seventh and last in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga. The late-developing son of Union Rags had the lead at the stretch call and then drew off to win by almost two lengths. It took him four starts to break his maiden after facing three formidable fields. In the Wood Memorial (G2), he had the lead but got run down by his long-shot stablemate. That qualified the Todd Pletcher trainee for the Kentucky Derby (G1), where he was never comfortable in the large field or on the rail. Pletcher has two previous winners of the Travers. Dynamic One will need to build on his win in the Curlin. His breeding says the 10 furlongs will not be a problem. Use underneath.

5. Miles D (12-1 – Curlin – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 3: 1-1-0 - $77,280) This lightly raced Chad Brown runner earned a spot in the Travers when he finished second in the Curlin in his third career start. However, this field is full of well-tested 3-year-olds with plenty of graded stakes experience. Even with all of his recent success, Brown would love to get his first Travers victory. Toss.

6. Masqueparade (8-1 – Upstart– Al Stall Jr. / Miguel Mena – 7: 3-0-2 - $700,865) This Al Stall Jr. runner burst onto the 3-year-old scene with his runaway allowance win at Churchill Downs that served as a prep for his victory in the Ohio Derby (G3). In the Jim Dandy, he was part of the early pace, raced gamely down the stretch, but could not match the top two finishers who went by him. Still, he is just as good as anybody but the top choice in the Travers. Exacta contender.

7. King Fury (15-1 – Curlin – Kenny McPeek / Jose Ortiz – 8: 3-1-0 - $362,739) King Fury has had three starts in 2021 – his exciting victory in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland in April, a second in the Ohio Derby (G3), and then 10th in the Saratoga Derby (G1) when trainer Kenny McPeek needed to get a race in him. McPeek’s Saratoga barn had been put in quarantine, and the turf Grade 1 had to serve as King Fury’s prep race for the Travers. His two dirt races this year make King Fury a contender to beat the rest of the field. McPeek won the Travers in 2012 with Golden Ticket. Use in exacta.

Summary: Essential Quality certainly deserves to be an odds-on favorite in the Travers and the top choice to win the Midsummer Derby. Let’s take a look at why.

• Essential Quality has earned $3.5 million in eight starts; the rest of the field has total combined earnings of $2.7 million in 45 starts.

• Essential Quality has won six graded stakes victories; the others have three graded stakes between them.

• Essential Quality has three Grade 1 wins in his career; the rest of the field is still hoping to win a first Grade 1.

The Travers appears to be a battle for the second spot in an exacta that has the Belmont Stakes winner on top. Making that choice will not be easy as five out of the six other 3-year-olds have a legitimate chance to finish in the place position.

Midnight Bourbon’s last four starts were in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races, and that gives him a class edge on the others. In those four starts, he was second in the Preakness and the Louisiana Derby (G2). He was in contention down the stretch in the Haskell (G1) but was eliminated from the race after the incident with Hot Rod Charlie.

Make one bet only in the Travers – a cold exacta with Essential Quality over Midnight Bourbon.