Track Trends: Favorite win rate declines despite formful Travers
For the week ended August 28, favorites won 38.9 percent of the time. This is a slight decrease from the 39.4 percent win rate seen the week of August 15 to August 21.
More total races were run this week at 824 in comparison to the prior week's 747, though average field size decreased marginally from 7.2 to 7.1 runners. The average payout for a $2.00 win wager was $10.66.
The highly anticipated Pacific Classic (G1) and reappearance of Flightline is Saturday. Though a likely and deserving favorite, there may be some opportunities in other races at Del Mar for some value. Favorites won 32 percent of the time on the main track, but only 19 percent of the time on the turf course last week. Field size continues to be strong at Del Mar with an average of 9.56 turf runners and 8.37 dirt runners.
Formful results in the Travers Stakes contributed to the total favorite win rate, where the public pick in No. 6 Epicenter was able to secure his first Grade 1 victory. The other short priced winner throughout Saturday's stakes races at Saratoga was No. 6 Jack Christopher in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial. Otherwise, the "Graveyard of champions" claimed several others, such as Jackie's Warrior and Clairiere.
The final week of the 2022 meet begins Wednesday. Horseplayers looking for more insight on how to play this week's races can tune in Tuesday evening to the live Saratoga weekly preview, with NYRA morning line maker David Aragona as this week's guest. For updates on video handicapping content, subscribe to the Horse Racing Nation YouTube channel.
On the main track at Saratoga, favorites were successful 44 percent of the time. Bettors were able to find more value on both the inner and Mellon turf courses, with chalk winning 33 percent of the time on the Mellon and 25 percent of the time on the inner.
Among tracks running full-card Thoroughbred racing, favorites won most infrequently at Charles Town. Even though the featured Charles Town Classic was won by favored Art Collector, chalk only won 17 percent of the time over 29 contested races. The average $2.00 win payout was $10.59 and the average field size was 7.41 runners.