Track Trends: Favorite win rate declines as Ky. Derby looms
With competitive fields at Keeneland through its opening weekend, the reopening of Aqueduct’s turf course and more total races run, the favorite strike rate declined last week from the preceding week’s 39 percent. Related: Track Trends: Favorites down for week, up in 1st quarter For the week ended April 10, chalk was victorious 34.5 percent of the time, the lowest rate of any week this year.
Although it’s much too soon to make predictions about how the second quarter of the year will turn out, this is a welcome start after a first quarter of winning favorites that surpassed any year’s first quarter percentage since 2015.
The three final 100-point preps for the Kentucky Derby took place at Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita. Post-time favorites went 0-for-3. The 9-5 favorite Morello in the Wood Memorial (G2) finished sixth but still has enough points to enter the starting gate on May 7 if his connections so decide. Smile Happy, favorite and runner-up to Zandon in the Blue Grass (G1), remains on target for the Run for the Roses. Forbidden Kingdom, the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) who set the pace and faded to finish last, has been removed from consideration because of concerns related to a possible ulcer. Santa Anita was the best place to try to beat the favorite on the dirt last week, as the chalk won only 27 percent of the time. Bettors can begin finalizing their Derby selections with Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener – the most comprehensive guide to the Kentucky Derby based on 20 years of study.
Turf racing’s return to New York resulted in no winning favorites on either the inner or outer courses. This is from four races run on the outer and three on the inner. The final race on the April 10 card saw long-shot Kannon Fire pay $32.00 to win. This upset triggered a Pick-6 carryover into this Thursday, April 14. Bettors may want to spend extra time finalizing their selections as four of the six races in the sequence will take place on the grass.