Track Trends: Can favorites be trusted at Fair Grounds?

Synthetic surfaces continued to be a safe haven for chalk bettors and equines alike last week, as favorites won most frequently on the Tapeta for the second week running. For the week ended March 20, overall percentages remained fairly consistent across all three surfaces compared with the prior week as favorites won 38.3 percent of the time – a 1.0 percentage point increase from March 7 to March 13. Total races run also increased by 28 and average field size increased slightly from 7.3 to 7.4. 

Two surfaces saw favorites winning more than 60 percent of the time – the downhill turf course at Santa Anita and the Fair Grounds turf. Bettors could rely on the chalk 64 percent of the time on the grass in Louisiana, which will be important to keep in mind for this upcoming weekend. Horse Racing Nation is proud to present the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes. This race at 1 1/8 miles on the turf will go off as Race 10 on Saturday 26. Morning line favorite No. 2 Sacred Life (FR) looks to return to the winner’s circle after a sixth-place effort in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1). 

To add to Saturday’s excitement at the Fair Grounds, Kentucky Derby hopefuls have the opportunity to compete for the most points at the longest distance in the Louisiana Derby (G2). On the Oaks trail, champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu makes her much anticipated 3-year-old debut in the Fair Grounds Oaks. If last week’s stats are any indication for the upcoming weekend, bettors might want to look beyond the morning-line favorites for some value opportunities. With 35 races contested, favorites won 31 percent of the time on the dirt. That was one of the lowest percentages of winning chalk on dirt for the entire week. Only Laurel Park and Louisiana Downs had lower favorite win rates for the surface.

Entries already have been drawn for Louisiana Derby day and can be found here.