Track Trends: Can favorites be trusted at Colonial?

Favorites won 36.7 percent of the time for the week ended September 4, less frequently than the previous week where chalk had been successful at a 38.9 percent win rate.

Although fewer total races were run this week at 778, average field size remained relatively the same at 7.1 runners. This decrease in total races contested was partly due to a cancellation of later races on Saturday and a rescheduling of Sunday’s full card at Kentucky Downs. Heavy rain in the area caused Sunday’s card to be moved to Monday, September 5.

Kentucky Downs also boasted the highest average field size for the week with 11.1 runners, even with a rescheduled day. Those fields make for a challenge, but lead to excellent value if you have the right horses. Last year’s Horse Racing Nation Power Picks for Kentucky Downs returned a flat-bet profit.

As the Saratoga meet comes to a close, so does Colonial Downs. However, two days of betting action remain at the New Kent, Va. track. Tuesday’s card features several stakes races, highlighted by the Grade 3 Virginia Derby.

If last week’s trends are any indication, the surface ripe for the most upsets would be the inner turf course, which is where the Virginia Derby will take place. Favorites won 25 percent of the time over 12 races run with an average $2.00 payout of $11.25.

The main track at Colonial Downs was more formful, with favorites winning 40 percent of the time. Chalk won at a 40 percent clip on the outer turf as well.

One week remains for the Del Mar summer meet, where favorites were more successful on the turf last week than the dirt. Obviously not contributing to that was Flightline, heavily favored winner of the Pacific Classic. On the grass, chalk won 40 percent of the time. On the dirt, more value was to be found, with favorites successful at a 33 percent win rate.

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