Track Trends: Bettors are figuring out synthetic racing

Bucking the conventional wisdom that handicapping synthetic races is impossible, chalk bettors during the week ended March 13 found a safe haven there, tabbing 42 percent winners on the Tapeta across Golden Gate Fields, Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park. Helping bettors navigate the synthetic fibers was Horse Racing Nation’s Power Picks, which tabbed 48 percent winners across 52 races at both Golden Gate and Turfway for a 19 percent flat-bet profit. Power Picks also sported a positive ROI at Turf Paradise and Sam Houston Race Park. Not so kind to favorites was turf racing. Perhaps buoyed by a 10.4 average field size, chalk won only 34.3 percent of races on the lawn with both Fair Grounds Race Course and Gulfstream having fewer than one third of favorites winning. The synthetic-turf favorite strike rates are a reversal from the previous week. But field size in turf races was up notably this week and could’ve been a factor in why bettors had more difficulty. Dirt racing remained steady, with a 36.9 percent strike rate. This was up from the previous week but still below the 40 percent threshold more common earlier in the year. The number of races declined sharply because of cancellations from a winter storm over the weekend. But those cancellations helped propel Tampa Bay Downs to a record handle of more than $20.7 million on Tampa Bay Derby day, March 12. That figure not only led all 11 tracks that ran that day but also represented nearly a third of the entire market.