Track Trends: Are favorites in trouble Belmont Stakes week?

Rich Strike bids to become the 13th horse to win both the first and final legs of the Triple Crown without a Preakness victory, a win that would bring the total number of horses that have won all three and those that have won just the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes to a tie. Rich Strike may not be the post time favorite as either Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal, the current antepost favorite, or Peter Pan winner We the People, the morning line favorite, could be the race day chalk. Subscribe the Horse Racing Nation YouTube channel for handicapping analysis on the Belmont Stakes and undercard races. Although the total favorite win rate increased to 38.1 percent from the prior week’s 36.7 percent, chalk was less successful at Belmont Park on the main track. The previous week’s 40 percent win rate decreased to 34 percent the week of May 31 to June 5. On the outer turf, favorites won 3-of-10 races. On the inner, favorites won 2-of-8. With these trends in mind, it may be possible to find value throughout the Belmont Racing Festival, where quality racing action will be underway throughout the weekend.  Favorites were most successful at Emerald Downs, winning at a 70 percent rate. Horse Racing Nation data is available on the track feed to assist bettors in their wagering decision, including Power Picks. The average field size was 6.6, smaller than the total average for the week of 7.0. Bettors having less options to choose from in races may have contributed to the extremely high percentage of winning chalk. 

Churchill Downs was absolute chaos for bettors, particularly on Saturday where the late Pick 5 paid more than $400,000 for a 50 cent base. Short prices that many relied on as singles such as Pauline’s Pearl and Americanrevolution were defeated on the main track where favorites won 26 percent of the time. Long-shots were also successful on the grass, including Kitodan in the Audubon Stakes - a winner that paid $82.00 on a $2 win wager. On the turf, chalk won 31 percent of the time.  Looking ahead to the next major race for 3-year-old colts, the Haskell, favorites will need to be heavily considered if trends continue. On the main track at Monmouth Park, chalk won 52 percent of the time. However on the grass, value opportunities abound. Favorites were only successful on the turf course 27 percent of the time. With a decrease in turf racing at Churchill Downs, full fields are to be expected this summer at Monmouth Park.