Top 3 Most Likely Breeders' Cup Pace Meltdowns
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TimeformUS Past Performances include a Pace Projector for each race. This tool tries to predict the position of the field at the official first call of the race. The official first call is after one quarter mile for races at less than one mile and after one half mile for races at a mile or longer. The Pace Projector also attempts to predict when the pace might be fast or slow based on the composition of the field along with the distance and surface of the race. With those things in mind, these are the three races that appear most likely to be hotly contested and fast early. Closers usually take the worst of it in horse racing, but these races could be the exceptions.
Distaff
A full gate of 14 is set to contest the nine furlong Distaff on dirt. Of those 14, seven are designated with a running style of “Leader”, “Speed”, or “Tracker”---these horses do best when on or close to the lead. Yahilwa (the 10 horse) is projected to clear from the outside and establish a clear lead. Calamity Kate (5) is the other most likely to lead if Yahilwa can’t clear form the outside.
Regardless of which horse leads early, she won’t be left alone for long. When the field is this deep with horses possessing both early and tactical speed, any leader will likely face multiple challenges at various points in the race. These types of challenges usually result in a slow final fraction and allow closers to make a meaningful late charge. The leaders turning into the stretch should be ripe for the picking in the lane.
Top late threats: Got Lucky (12), Stellar Wind (9)
Filly and Mare Sprint
Like the Distaff, the Filly and Mare Sprint features a maximum field of 14. As might be expected, large fields lead to faster-paced races. The more horses in the race, the more likely multiple “speed horses” enter. This causes the battle for early position to be more hotly contested.
Seven furlong races like this one usually don’t draw a lot of speed horses, but it is the Breeders’ Cup, so more are given the opportunity to go farther than they might otherwise be asked to run. Three entrants are labeled as “speed” horses and four more as “trackers”. Trackers are horses that like to run just off the speed.
La Verdad (4), Sweet Whiskey (9), and Taris (3) are shown as the horses most likely to be near the lead. La Verdad just raced this past weekend and displayed a new dimension, rating a few lengths off the pace and beating an overmatched group of New York-breds, so perhaps she will attempt that style again. Sweet Whiskey raced poorly last out at Keeneland when unable to make the lead early, but she is almost always a pace factor. Taris was involved in a vicious four-horse speed battle in her last race and doesn’t seem the type to rate easily. Speed is always dangerous, but in this contest, horses on or near the lead seem particularly vulnerable.
Top late threats: Cavorting (14), Wavell Avenue (7), Judy the Beauty (11)
Mile
Turf racing in general is less speed-favoring than dirt racing, and when the pace is expected to be fast, horses racing towards the front of the pack face a daunting task. Of all the races on the card, this one is the most likely to have a fast pace. The reason---Obviously. In 14 starts at one mile on the turf, he has led after six furlongs by a length or more in---you guessed it---14 of them. These 14 starts include the last three editions of this race. The Pace Projector, not surprisingly, thinks Obviously will have a clear lead early while going fast.
While the early pace isn’t likely to be strongly contested, due to Obviously's superior early speed, it will be fast, and that takes a toll on those in closest pursuit. The top two finishers in 2014 were running 10th and 12th early in a 14-horse field. In 2013, Wise Dan won from sixth early while longshot Za Approval rallied from 8th to complete the exacta. It was a 10-horse field. A fast pace doesn’t always aid closers if the pace setter is a top class horse, but Obviously hasn’t been that kind of horse so far in his career, and it is unlikely he is now, at the age of seven. What he is, though, is a nightmare for other speed horses, and that is why this race should be won from off the pace.
Top late threats: Karakontie (11), Mondialiste (4), Esoterique (9)
~By TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski
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