Top 10 daily HRN speed figures and fastest maidens

Photo: Renee Torbit / Churchill Downs

Howgreatisnate led all performers Sunday with a 133 Horse Racing Nation speed figure in the second race at Delaware Park. The 5-year-old gelding by Speightster captured a six-furlong dirt allowance at 2-1 odds. This marked his sixth career victory in his 15th start.

Lovin' On the Run earned a 129 HRN speed figure at Laurel Park in a dominant win by 5 1/4 lengths. The 5-year-old horse by Runhappy won a 6 1/2-furlong dirt allowance optional claimer at 2-1 odds for his fourth career victory from 19 starts.

Guns Loaded completed the top three with a 128 HRN speed figure at Churchill Downs in the eighth race. The 3-year-old colt by Gun Runner scored at 9-2 odds, recording his third career win from six starts in an allowance optional claimer.

Sunday's top 10 speed figures

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
133 Howgreatisnate Speightster 5G DEL 2 6f dirt
129 Lovin' On the Run Runhappy 5M LRC 7 6 1/2f dirt
128 Guns Loaded Gun Runner 3C CD 8 6f dirt
123 Golden Irish Goldencents 3F CD 10 7f dirt
122 Gin's Beach Road Quality Road 3F CD 7 6f dirt
119 Onyx Ten Street Magician 3F DEL 4 6f dirt
119 Probably Dreaming Improbable 2C DEL 6 6f dirt
119 Lights of Broadway City of Light 5G GP 5 1 3/16 synth
119 Fielding Street Sense 3G LRL 6 1 mile dirt
119 Unsolved Mystery Goldencents 6M MTH 6 6f dirt

Fastest maiden winners

Gin's Beach Road posted the day's highest maiden winner figure with a 122 HRN speed figure at Churchill Downs. The 3-year-old filly by Quality Road dominated a six-furlong dirt maiden special weight at 2-1 odds in a dominant win by 5 1/4 lengths in her third career start. She is out of Yellow Agate, a Grade 1 winner by Gemologist who earned $292,000, and her top sibling Agate Road is a Grade 2 performer who has earned $316,000.

Fielding impressed with a 119 HRN speed figure in a one-mile dirt maiden claimer at Laurel Park. The 3-year-old gelding by Street Sense won at 21-1 odds in a dominant win by 10 1/4 lengths in his second career start. His dam One Night by Distorted Humor earned $91,000, and top sibling Zoning Order by Shaman Ghost has earned $103,000.

Throckmorton earned a 118 HRN speed figure at Gulfstream Park in his third career start. The 2-year-old colt by Caracaro finished a five-furlong synthetic maiden special weight at 6-5 odds. His dam Whatarocket by Goldencents earned $22,000 during her racing career.

Sunday's top maiden winners

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
122 Gin's Beach Road Quality Road 3F CD 7 6f dirt
119 Fielding Street Sense 3G LRL 6 1 mile dirt
118 Throckmorton Caracaro 2C GP 4 5f synth
114 Fully Booked Maclean's Music 3C MTH 1 1 1/16 turf
106 Leading Role Oscar Performance 3G BAQ 3 6 1/2f dirt
106 Utopian Curlin 4G CD 3 7f dirt
103 A. P. Again Honor A. P. 2C LRC 1 5 1/2f dirt
103 Reign Champagne Hard Spun 3F CD 1 1 1/16 dirt
101 Dancingwithdestiny Disco Partner 2F BAQ 2 6f turf
101 Headstrong Ways Munnings 3F LRC 8 6f dirt

About HRN speed figures

HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.

The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.

Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically. 

Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:

Top HRN figure, 26.2% winners

Top Beyer figure, 28.1% winners

Top TimeformUS figure, 28.4% winners

Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.

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