Timeline: How Rich Strike would win Kentucky Derby 2022

Louisville, Ky.

It was a fragile set of circumstances that led to Rich Strike’s unlikeliest of victories Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. Like a string of Christmas lights that is only as good as its weakest bulb, it would not have taken much to keep this story from being told.

This was the timeline that led to the biggest upset in the past 108 years of America’s biggest horse race.

June 25, 2015. Nearly three weeks after making his American riding debut, Venezuela native Sonny León scored his first victory by riding a 3-year-old gelding from last to first in a $15,000 claiming race at Gulfstream Park. The horse’s name was Burning Time.

Aug. 29, 2015. Keen Ice, a 16-1 long shot who still was eligible for races limited to non-winners of more than one, upset Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Travers (G1) at Saratoga. He would win only once more before he was retired two years later to begin his breeding career for Calumet Farm in Lexington, Ky.

Dec. 18, 2016. An early-morning lightning fire destroyed a barn at the Mercury Equine Center in Lexington, killing 23 horses inside. Owner Eric Reed also lost all his feed, tack, paperwork and racing trophies, and he seriously considered leaving the sport.

April 25, 2019. At Calumet Farm, the Smart Strike mare Gold Strike foaled a chestnut colt who was sired by Keen Ice. In time the homebred baby would be named Rich Strike.

Oct. 3, 2019. Churchill Downs Inc. announced a $46 million deal with JACK Entertainment to buy Turfway Park near Cincinnati. This would lead to the promotion of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) to a major points prep for the Kentucky Derby and the addition of the John Battaglia Memorial to the Derby prep calendar.

Aug. 15, 2021. With Ricardo Santana Jr. riding for trainer Joe Sharp, 2-year-old Rich Strike made his debut by finishing last of 10 horses in a one-mile turf race for maidens at Ellis Park. After being sent off at odds of 9-2, he never was closer than 6 1/4 lengths at any call.

Sept. 17, 2021. Adding blinkers, making the move to dirt and the switch to jockey Adam Beschizza, Rich Strike broke his maiden by winning a one-turn mile by 17 lengths at Churchill Downs. It was a $51,500 claiming race, and the winner was bought for $30,000 by Reed on behalf of new owner Rick Dawson’s RED-TR Racing.

Oct. 9, 2021. With Reed now training and Julien Leparoux riding, Rich Strike bobbled at the start, grazed a rival, got steadied on the first turn and closed to finish third at odds of 9-2 in a one-mile dirt allowance at Keeneland. It would be his last start in something other than a stakes race.

Dec. 26, 2021. Carrying odds of 46-1 at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Rich Strike was the longest shot on the board for the inaugural running of the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes, a new Kentucky Derby points prep. With Sonny León riding him for the first time, he finished fifth, 14 lengths behind Epicenter. Rich Strike missed out on getting any Derby qualifying points.

Jan. 22, 2022. Away from the Derby trail to make his 3-year-old debut, Rich Strike closed from eighth to finish third as an 8-1 shot in the one-mile Leonatus Stakes, a black-type race on the Tapeta track at Turfway.

March 5, 2022. Rich Strike finished a head better than Erase in the battle for fourth place in the Battaglia, which was in its second year as a Derby qualifying prep. Getting almost no notice at the time, that bob of the head and the single point that Rich Strike earned would prove vital two months later.

April 2, 2022. As he had in the Battaglia, Tiz the Bomb won the Jeff Ruby. León and Rich Strike were as far back as 8 1/4 lengths in 11th place before they rallied to come in third, good for 20 Derby qualifying points. Had the race not been elevated to major-prep status in 2021, that third-place finish would have been worth only four points.

April 16, 2022. Tawny Port won the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. That left 20 horses with at least 30 points in Derby qualifying. Rich Strike’s 21 points left him 24th, no better than the last also-eligible.

April 25, 2022. A day after Morello was ruled out of the Derby, owners of Classic Causeway changed their minds and restored him to the race. Rich Strike went from 24th to 23rd and back to 24th. Nevertheless, he was shipped that evening from Mercury Equine Center to Barn 17 at Churchill Downs to prepare for an unlikely start in the Derby. 

April 27, 2022. Breezing at Churchill, Rich Strike was clocked at 59.6 seconds covering five furlongs. “You couldn’t do any better than that,” Reed said. “Now we’ll just wait and see what happens.”

May 1, 2022. Defections by Early Voting and In Due Time moved Rich Strike up to 22nd, still needing two more horses to drop out to make the Derby starting gate.

Monday. A bruised hoof forced Un Ojo to be left out of the entry box for the Derby. Rich Strike drew No. 21 as the first of two also-eligibles. If he had one fewer point, his $74,500 earnings in non-restricted stakes would have put him behind No. 22 Rattle N Roll’s $356,500. Rich Strike was installed as a 30-1 long shot on the morning line – just in case.

Friday, 8 a.m. EDT. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas decided to scratch Ethereal Road, drawn into post 20, from the Derby. “I thought he was flat,” Lukas recalled Sunday. “He didn’t seem to have his energy that morning. I had run him twice in a week down there (last month at Keeneland). If I had run him again and he didn’t run well, then I pretty much blew the summer.”

Friday, 8:45 a.m. Reed was told there would be no scratches at the 9 a.m. deadline and that Rich Strike was out. One of the security guards assigned to provide 24/7 protection at all the Derby horses’ barns was relieved of his duty. “We’ve got to get ready for the Peter Pan (G3) next week,” Reed remembered saying. “If we run well, we’ll go to the Belmont and show them that we belong.”

Friday, 8:50 a.m. Lukas made it formal when he told stewards Ethereal Road would be scratched.

Friday, 8:55 a.m. Reed got a call telling him Rich Strike was in the Derby after all. “My pony girl Fifi calls me on the phone and goes, ‘Don’t do anything with your horse. Don’t move him.’ Then (steward) Barbara Borden calls and says, ‘Tomorrow in the 12th race, the Kentucky Derby, do you want to draw in off the also-eligible?’ I couldn’t even breathe to answer and say, ‘Yes.’ Now we’re in.”

Saturday, 2 p.m. While Epicenter was the 5-1 favorite, Rich Strike was showing at 99-1 in the Kentucky Derby win pool. Since that is as high as the tote board will show, he probably was longer than 100-1.

Saturday, 7:02 p.m. The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby began with Epicenter the 4-1 favorite. At 80-1, Rich Strike carried the longest odds.

Saturday, 7:04 p.m. With 10 strides to go to the finish line, Rich Strike passed Epicenter on his way to becoming the second longest shot in race history to win the Kentucky Derby.