The most exciting race to bet opening day at Sam Houston

Adding to an exciting week of firsts in my personal life, opening day at Sam Houston provides another opportunity to try something new: handicapping at this track. The 10-race card offers significant value to players with its low take out (12%) on multi-race wagers and a history of beatable favorites during opening weekend. 

Race 2 sticks out to me with a vulnerable favorite among lightly raced horses. A $15,000 maiden claiming event at 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt for females ages 4 and 5, this eight-horse field (before scratches) goes through No. 3 Hush Hush, who is 8-5 on Nick Tammaro’s morning line.

While she ran decently enough on debut, finishing 2nd to C V Thunder at Turfway Park going 6F for a $5,000 claiming tag, there’s more value available than 9-5 going up in class. C V Thunder has run back twice since that win and been uncompetitive each time—unable to improve, let alone replicate, her winning Beyer Speed Figure in a pair of unplaced finishes. Hush Hush could be a player if she runs back the same race or a better one, but I prefer others.

My top pick is No. 6 Bering’s Special, who’s making her third career start, but first for a tag. On debut, she ran well to make up ground around the turn and, although there seemed to be no contact in the stretch, it appeared on the replay that things may have gotten a little tight on her with a horse to her inside and one closing on her outside. That can easily intimidate an inexperienced horse, and I think she did well to continue running on to keep third.

Second time out, she still ran greenly in the stretch and was reluctant to switch leads. I’m willing to find out if she’s put it all together here at a 4-1 morning line.

Other intriguing horses include No. 8 Good Liquor (12-1 ML) trying the dirt for the third time. She was third last out behind Irma M who went off at 1-10 and wired the field. In her only other dirt attempt, she was shut off early and seemed uncomfortable with being inside horses. With a different trip from an outside post, I like her chances to get a piece of this.

At 20-1 ML, No. 7 Mom’s Prayer returns to the claiming ranks while making her third start off a layoff and sports a 3rd-place effort at Sam Houston to her credit. She also has early speed and cuts back in distance; something that should benefit her. Perhaps she, too, can outrun her odds!

For up-to-the-second analysis on this race and more on the opening day card, tune in to the Horse Racing Nation live stream beginning 4:30 p.m. EST on Thursday. First post at Sam Houston is 5 p.m.

For additional handicapping information, including a free Sam Houston preview and daily Power Picks, visit https://picks.horseracingnation.com/sam-houston-picks/.