DeRosa: How to play the Fair Grounds pick 5 carryover

Nobody picked five consecutive winners to close the card Sunday at Fair Grounds, which means the late Pick 5 (races 5-9) on Wednesday starts with $19,983 in the pool and a low 15 percent takeout on new money.

It's an approachable sequence with a mix of surfaces and class levels. The forecast looks clear for Wednesday, but steady rain throughout the early part of the week means turf will be a race-day decision. 

That's OK, we can still look at races 5, 7 and 9 (legs 1, 3 and 5, respectively) and start thinking about potential leans, zigs, zags and fades.

Race 5 is a straightforward claimer with the top two choices on the morning line, no. 3 Harold's Cloud (9-5) and no. 7 My Romeo Lima (3-1), definitely making the most sense. The Horse Racing Nation artificial intelligence morning line projects an even clearer separation between the two, so I'm going to favor no. 7 at the expected bigger price.

Some may look at his form and assume a return to dirt is not optimal, but his recent efforts on the surface were against better. He also has a win at this track and distance and what appears to be controlling speed against this group. Using the HRN Track Trends Tool (TTT), we see that Fair Grounds dirt routes play fairly to all run styles, so although being a frontrunner alone is not an upgrade, being the lone frontrunner is.

We'll reference the HRN TTT again for race 7, a short-stretch, two-turn mile for Louisiana-bred allowance types. This is a nice group, but there is a hiccup. Again, the top two choices, no. 9 Duvee (9-2) and no. 11 Coffee County (4-1), make sense. But posts 8-12 are 0-for-61 in races with at least nine starters this meeting with posts 1-2 performing extremely well.

I can still give no. 12 Peso Pesado a look at 8-1 morning line because of the price and his closing style in a race where there is some pace. I'll want to spread, though, against the top two morning-line choices. No. 1 Mo Credo will get a similar trip as Peso Pesado but likely will save more ground. No. 5 Ranch Water and no. 6 El Deal Me Aces will be forwardly placed, which I don't love, but their 6-1 and 8-1 morning-line prices, respectively, make up for that. 

No. 7 The Boss Soss interests me most with a midpack-type trip at 6-1 morning line, and he will not be overly compromised by post.

Another full field awaits us in the last, as 13 Louisiana-bred maidens entered this one looking for their first win, and there is a standout in no. 2 He's Just Lucky (6-5 morning line).

He's Just Lucky was a speed-and-fade against special-weight types, 5.8-1 against 11 others on debut then the 2.1-1 favorite against 11 more from the rail in the slop last out. A bullet work since then and a drop in class for this makes him really tough to oppose, but he's not invincible.

The inside draw and early zip helps his case, but if we're fortunate to be right in the four races preceding this one, then I'd love to also be alive to no. 3 Gran Chico, who ships in from Delta for trainer Chasey Pomier, who is better second-time out. And no. 9 Cajun Cyclone has a gnarly looking page because of facing better so often, but the state-bred claiming efforts fit this group. They're both 12-1 and playable with the other logicals in the sequence.

Obviously, races 6 and 8, which are legs 2 and 4, are big pieces to complete this puzzle. My initial thought is to use just 3 and 7 on the main ticket to kick things off, followed by the logicals in leg 3, race 7, that are not the top two morning-line choices and then mostly singled on the deuce to close it out.

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