Kentucky Derby superfecta can still pay great with the favorite
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In this unusual 2020 Kentucky Derby in September, one of the biggest questions is not who will win but how to bet Tiz the Law and will it pay anything.
Looking back at past Kentucky Derby runnings where the favorite has won, we can see there is still significant potential for good payouts. One of the main reasons for that is the sheer number of potential combinations in such a big field.
Looking at the last nine times the favorite won the Derby, in seven of those cases the superfecta paid over $7,500 for $1. And in most every one of these cases, it only took one longshot to generate the big payoffs.
If we look at three of the biggest winning favorites of the nine, those were Justify (2018), California Chrome (2014) and Big Brown (2008). All were in the 2-1 to 5-2 range, which is also considerably higher than what Tiz the Law is expected to go off at.
Still, these three races illustrate how quickly that even a formful finish under the favorite can start to blow up the payouts with just one longshot.
The 2008 Derby with Big Brown a prohibitive 2-1 favorite is probably the closest example to Tiz the Law we can find. On that day, the ill-fated Eight Belles was the fourth choice in the race at 13-1. The second and third choices, Colonel John at 9-2 and Pyro at 5-1, both ran off the board. After that, the next lowest odds were 17-1, so it was basically take your pick of the longshots to fill out the trifecta and superfecta. And if you got that correctly, the $29,369 superfecta was quite a reward.
When looking at a large field and trying to determine which one of 14 longshots have the best chance to hit the board, one of the key determining factors can be the pace of the race. One of the things the Kentucky Derby Super Screener excels at is finding the 2-3 longshots that can hit the board, and it uses the pace in its analysis.
The Kentucky Derby Super Screener is based on a 20-year study of Kentucky Derby patterns for both winners and longshot board-hitters. To learn more about how the
Super Screener uses historical pace, speed, cycle and trends to separate the Derby field,
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Super Screener longshot success
In 2017, the Super Screener added to its greatest Kentucky Derby scores by listing 33-1 Lookin At Lee as its top longshot. Super Screener also had 37-1 Commanding Curve as a top longshot in 2014 and 34-1 Golden Soul in 2013.
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