The Horse Capper: Analyzing Saturday's Wood Memorial

The Favorite

#5 Enticed (6-5) is coming off a dominant win in the Grade Gotham going the one-turn mile at the Big A. The 3-year-old colt received a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure with that win. Now he will have to go a distance of 1 1/8 miles, which he has never attempted. The Gotham did favor closers, and his setup was ideal. There looks to be some speed signed on in this race as well that sets up for the colt, who’s out of Grade 1-winning mare It’s Tricky. Jockey Jockey Junior Alvarado is back aboard for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

Value Win Contender

#8 Restoring Hope (4-1) ships in for Bob Baffert. This son of Giant’s Causeway is coming off a dominating maiden win. He has tactical speed and looks to be on the improve. This is not the strongest Wood Memorial, and Baffert knows how to place his horses well when going out of town. He is a big horse with nice tactical speed. Jockey Flavien Prat travels ride, and he was aboard for the win last out.

Live Longshots

#7 King Zachary (20-1) will most likely not go off at 20-1 but should offer some value. His first start around two turns last time out resulted in a 7 1/4-length win at Gulfstream Park. Jockey Robby Albarado has first call for all of Dale Romans’ horses, and he opted to ride this one in New York rather than Free Drop Billy at Keeneland. King Zachary’s tactical speed should put him a good position with his outside post. The question is if he’s good enough.

#4 Old Time Revival (6-1) looks to be the speed of the race with Jeremy Rose aboard. His Gotham was a career-best 90 Beyer when he was run down by Enticed. This will be his first two time going two turns. Best chance is to set a slow pace and keep going.

Remaining Entrants

#1 Heartfullofstars (20-1) ships in from California for good connections. Has to improve to win as his only win was over a sloppy track. Would be a big upset if this son of Astrology got it done. There is rain in the forecast, which could boost his chances.

#2 Firenze Fire (6-1) to me is a one-turn horse. The distance could really hurt him. He is very consistent, and there could be a quick pace. Connections have said they need a good effort to go to Kentucky, so he could be cranked up.

#3 Evaluator (20-1) scratched out of a New York-bred stakes to run in this spot. He is a dead closer who will be going two turns on the dirt for the first time. Adds blinkers to maybe get some more speed in him out of the gate. Don’t see it. 

#6 Catch Twenty Two (50-1) appears to have zero chance.

#9 Vino Rosso (9-2) gets back on the track where he had a convincing maiden win back in November. They tried blinkers with him in the Tampa Bay Derby last time out. He ran a flat fourth that day and looks to rebound. His outside post really boosts the colt’s chances. John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher are looking for their third straight weekend with a Derby prep winner. Big chance if main rivals do not show up.