Shutty: Anatomy of a right-priced Kentucky Derby long shot

While the conformation of a horse is important both in the sales ring and on the track, I’m referring to a different kind of anatomy, one that reveals how a Kentucky Derby long shot is put together that led to him breaking through to get on the board at a huge price.

What makes him stand out among the other 11 to 13 long shots who also will go off at odds of 20-1 or higher in a 20-horse Derby field?

The Kentucky Derby Super Screener is a 20+ year, ongoing data study that strives to uncover the data patterns that separate winners from the rest of the field, identify vulnerable low-priced types and isolate those few long shots that have the best shot to hit the superfecta at a huge price. Currently, 25 screening criteria are used to achieve those outcomes.

But just because a horse doesn’t score well as a win candidate doesn’t mean he couldn’t score high as a key long-shot pick to finish second, third or fourth at 20-1+ odds. That is why we also have a separate set of Super Screener Top Long Shot criteria that is used to take those horses who are eligible through a second screening process to assess their specific relative break-through potential versus the rest of the long shots in the race.

While I won’t share our proprietary formula for isolating the top long-shot candidates, I will provide you with an insider’s view into many of the criteria that can sort out the bombers with the best shot to hit the superfecta from those who have no shot at all.

Check out the Kentucky Derby Superfecta chart that we put together each year. I have highlighted the nine long shots that have hit the Superfecta over the past 10 years with odds ranging from 26-1 to 85-1.

Note that with the exception of the chalky 2015 and 2016 editions of the Kentucky Derby, at least one monster long shot has hit the superfecta. In 2017, two horses managed to land in the trifecta to produce mind-boggling payouts.

One probably would guess that you would see more long shots hitting the bottom of trifectas or superfectas. But note that over half of those nine long shots finished second. It is when these long shots finish that high in the order that the exotic payouts are gargantuan.

I went back and pulled together the past performances of these nine long shots for you and created a chart that will help narrow in on many of the separators that would have provided you with the conviction to have included those horses in your exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers.

So, let’s dig in…

Energy distribution profile

• Seven of the nine board-hitting long shots were closers that picked up tired horses down the stretch to hit the superfecta. Many might have had wide trips but were able to stay out of trouble and make uninterrupted, sustained runs to the wire.
• Mandaloun and Battle of Midway were pressers who were stamina-tested through demanding early fractions in one of their preps but had enough reserve energy to finish with a strong final speed figure.
  

• Many of these long shots ran a race in Louisiana in one of their final two preps. Prepping through Louisiana has become increasingly influential, as it is likely to be for this year’s Kentucky Derby.
• With the exception of Went the Day Well, who raced the year before the point system began, the rest of the Derby long shots last prepped in a 100-point race and often finished third or fourth to stay under the radar.
• The preps out of New York have not yielded a board-hitting long shot in some time, but several lower-priced horses have finished fourth in the Derby over the last 10 to 15 years.
  

• Note that without exception, none of these productive long shots produced a BRIS Speed Rating figure of less than 94 in their final two preps. This is an important separator as you’ll find a lot of other long shots in the race might look good at first glance but their best BRIS Speed Rating figure is 91 or 92 – which is close but doesn’t make the cut.
• On the other hand, very few of these long shots popped a 100+ Speed Rating in one of those final two preps, which led to them becoming long shots in the Kentucky Derby in the first place.
• Every long shot closer posted at least a 100 in either their Late Pace or Second Call figure. Lookin At Lee paired triple-digit Late Pace figures, which is also a key Super Screener win criterion.
• The two pressers threw a big figure at the second call, with Battle of Midway subjected to unprecedented pace figures of 114 and 122. After that, he found the Kentucky Derby pace to be far less demanding and finished third at 40-1.
  

• This is not a separator by any means, but on occasion there are final Derby preps that will be assigned a BRIS Race Rating of less than 116. This is often the case for the Sunland Derby (G3), for example. Even if a long shot looks promising, the company he achieved that success against must be considered.

• This is a strong separator. All of these board-hitting long shots built a great foundation. Most had five to six races to their name coming into the Derby. Unless you have a super horse, it is tough to get into the money with only three starts before the Derby even if all else looks good. (If you do have a super horse, he wouldn't be a long shot.)
• Most of these long-priced horses were making their fourth or fifth start off a layoff or their debut, adding to their solid foundation coming into the Derby.
  

• This was the biggest separator of all. You want a long shot who has moved forward in every race. It is OK if they show that kind of progression through all but their final prep, when they might have taken a small step back (Mandaloun being the exception) before heading to the Derby. The key is a very clear pattern of forward movement leading up to the final prep or Kentucky Derby. This is the criterion that most long shots will fail against but that every one of the nine board-hitting long shots over the past 10 years has met.
• Coupling strong foundation with steady form progression is even better.
  

• Top long shot picks must possess strong stamina breeding. There have been exceptions but not in the last 10 years. 1 1/4 miles is a whole different game than running well going 1 1/8 miles.

This gives you a glimpse into what goes into the anatomy of a Kentucky Derby superfecta-hitting long shot. But the Super Screener Top Long Shot criteria includes 20 variables in total that we analyze to derive a final long shot score. For the first time, we will be providing a horse’s overall Super Screener score, and for eligible long shots, their Super Screener long shot score as well.

Key things to remember when looking for your key long shot this year:

• At least one 25-1+ shot is likely to land in the Kentucky Derby superfecta, with many of them finishing second. This results in a lot of torn tickets but also great payouts for those who find the right long shot and have the confidence to play him.
  
• It is no surprise that the vast majority of board-hitting monster long shots are closers who stay out of trouble, even take wider trips and then make one big stretch run to pass other long shots (and low-priced horses) who succumbed to the pace or didn’t have the foundation or stamina breeding to endure.
• Foundation and form cycle progression is a deadly combo when trying to sort out which long shots have the best shot to blow up the board.
  

Pick up your Kentucky Derby Super Screener now at picks.horseracingnation.com.