Alabama Stakes 2023: Odds and analysis for the 10-filly field

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Three-year-old fillies line up at Saratoga on Saturday for the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes. A field of 10, led by Grade 1 winner Wet Paint, will contest the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles on the main track.

The winner of the Alabama the last three years, Nest, Malathaat and Swiss Skydiver, went on to earn the division championship. Going back to 2010, four other fillies secured that title, Blind Luck with three in a row, Royal Delta, Questing and Songbird.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Alabama with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Alabama is set as race 9 on an 11-race card and post time is scheduled for 5:45 pm EDT.

1. Sacred Wish, 8-1. Not This Time – George Weaver / John Velazquez – 6: 1-3-1 - $100,000. Sacred Wish had the lead in the stretch of the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) only to get beaten by a neck by the race favorite Wet Paint. She has only a maiden victory at Oaklawn to her credit but also has second-place finishes in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and a Belmont allowance. Trainer George Weaver is having an excellent Saratoga meeting. Live long shot.

2. Wet Paint, 5-2. Blame – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 9: 5-2-0 - $1,057,175. Wet Paint, who is currently ranked second in the 3-year-old filly division, returned to the winner’s circle after rallying to victory by a neck in the CCA Oaks at Saratoga a month ago. She won three stakes races at Oaklawn heading into the Kentucky Oaks (G1), where she finished fourth as the betting favorite. Wet Paint is one of three Grade 1 winners in the Alabama field and the only filly who is a $1 million earner. The one to beat.

3. Julia Shining, 9-2. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 4: 2-0-2 - $262,575. Julia Shining is the most lightly raced filly in the field with only four starts. Two of them were as a 2-year-old when she broke her maiden at Keeneland and then won the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct with late-running efforts. This year she was third at Tampa Downs in the Suncoast and then was third in the Ashland (G1) beaten by less than a length. The Stonestreet Stables homebred has been off since April and has been training at Saratoga. Use underneath.

4. Sabra Tuff, 30-1. Cross Traffic – Dallas Stewart / Reylu Gutierrez – 9: 1-1-1 - $225,970. Sabra Tuff has not found the winner’s circle since she broke her maiden in her debut at Churchill Downs more than a year ago in a sprint on the front end. Since the Louisiana-bred’s maiden score she raced exclusively in stakes races, including a third in the Adirondack (G3) at Saratoga last year. In three 2023 starts, fourth was her best finish and that came on opening day at the Spa in an allowance with Lasix for the first time. Trainer Dallas Stewart frequently takes a shot in big races with long shots. Toss.

5. Fireline, 12-1. Arrogate – Chad Brown / Javier Castellano – 4: 2-0-0 - $123,800. Fireline broke her maiden in her second start in a November at Aqueduct by more than 13 lengths going a mile. After six months off she made her 3-year-old debut at Belmont Park in an allowance and again was a winner, this time as the odds-on favorite. Trainer Chad Brown sent her to contest the Delaware Oaks (G3) last month and she ran fourth for the entire 1 1/16-mile contest. Brown won the 2019 Alabama with Dunbar Road. Use underneath.

6. Chocolate Gelato, 12-1. Practical Joke – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 2: 1-0-1 - $70,350. Chocolate Gelato was 9-2 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies based on her front-end, eight-length maiden victory at Saratoga and then her off-the-pace win in the Frizette (G1) during the Belmont at the Big A meeting in October. She has only one start this year and that was a fourth in the Jersey Girl at Belmont in June. She had a gap in her workout pattern at Belmont with no breeze between July 14 and Aug. 9. Live long shot.

7. Gambling Girl, 6-1. Dialed In – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 11: 2-3-3 - $544,910. Gambling Girl has not won a race in almost a year and that was in a New York-bred stakes at Aqueduct. Her last six races were in open company with four in graded stakes where she finished in the top three five times. Most noteworthy was her narrow loss in the Kentucky Oaks when she rallied from 11th position in the early going. Since then she was third in the CCA Oaks as the favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher won the Alabama four times including the two most recent with Nest and Malathaat. Use underneath.

8. Randomized, 8-1. Nyquist– Chad Brown / Joel Rosario – 4: 2-0-1 - $135,850. Randomized ran third in her first start, which was at Saratoga last summer, and then got her first victory going a mile at Aqueduct with a front-end effort after an eight-month layoff. Brown then sent her into stakes competition where she was a non-threatening sixth in the Acorn (G1). Randomized became a stakes winner last month when she led every step of the way in the restricted Wilton at Saratoga. The 10-furlong distance will be a big challenge for this lightly raced filly. Toss.

9. Taxed, 8-1. Collected – Randy Morse / Rafael Bejarano – 9: 2-3-0 - $418,844. Taxed was second in the Indiana Oaks as the odds-on favorite with a closing move from last after a victory in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) over Hoosier Philly. Before that she finished behind Wet Paint three times in the Oaklawn prep races for the Kentucky Oaks. Toss.

10. Defining Purpose, 6-1. Cross Traffic – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 9: 4-0-1 - $673,788. Defining Purpose is the third Grade 1 winner in the field with a victory in the Ashland at Keeneland in April. She ran seventh in the Kentucky Oaks after pressing the pace for about six furlongs. The daughter of Cross Traffic came back to win the Indiana Oaks (G3) by more than a length last month. Trainer Kenny McPeek has two wins in the Alabama with Swiss Skydiver and Eskimo Kisses. Win contender.

Summary: Wet Paint is the horse to beat in the Alabama, having the upper hand against most of the others in the field. She beat Taxed three times, Defining Purpose twice, Gambling Girl two times and won once against Sabra Tuff, Sacred Wish and Southlawn. Wet Paint will be the top choice and probably the favorite.

Late entries pushed the Alabama field size to 10 and improved the chance of a better payoffs in the exotic wagers. With that in mind, Defining Purpose, Gambling Girl, Chocolate Gelato, Fireline and Sacred Wish are interesting prospects to use underneath.