A 20-1 Kentucky Derby longshot you can't leave off your tickets
[ Related: How the Super Screener did in the 2017 Derby ]
The average number of lifetime starts for horses running in the Kentucky Derby continues to decrease as trainers seek fresher horses going into the Triple Crown series. Only Regret (1915) and Big Brown (2008) have won the Kentucky Derby off just three lifetime races, but they both had a start as a 2-year-old. This year there are four very lightly raced horses entered in the 2018 Kentucky Derby:
| Horse | ML Odds | Lifetime starts | Raced at 2? |
| Justify | 3-1 | 3 | No |
| Magnum Moon | 8-1 | 4 | No |
| Hofburg | 20-1 | 3 | Yes |
| Noble Indy | 30-1 | 4 | Yes |
Of course, all the buzz is centered around Justify and Magnum Moon, who are ranked 1-2 on many handicappers; lists and will be trying to break the “Apollo Curse” by winning the Kentucky Derby without a start as a juvenile. Both are unbeaten, and Justify will be the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby, with Magnum Moon going off at single-digit odds.
[ Read: How to hit big Kentucky Derby payoffs ]
The horse that shares so many similarities to Justify and Magnum Moon that is getting completely dismissed at early morning line odds of 20-1 is Hofburg. The fade on this colt is his lack of experience and the belief that he’ll be a better horse "down the road." But in truth, he’s a better horse right now! Let’s look at these compelling facts:
1. Of the US-based runners, Hofburg produced the fourth-best Brisnet running line in a final prep race behind Justify, Bolt d’Oro and Audible (who he finished second to in the Florida Derby).
2. Hofburg has moved forward in every start, and this meets a critical Super Screener criteria developed specifically for horses with just three starts: "must show an ascending pattern in speed figures and meet all other Super Screener criteria."
3. The Kentucky Derby pace will be swift and pressured, and Hofburg is the only horse among the four lightly raced types that is a mid-pack closer. As with the speedy pace he encountered in the Florida Derby, this offers him an advantage in this field.
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4. No one disagrees that for such a lightly raced horse, he runs extremely professionally and has handled kickback and adversity without raising a hair…unlike Justify, who was said to be distracted by umbrellas in the infield during the running of the Santa Anita Derby. Magnum Moon who freaked out in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby when he eyed the starting gate marks on the dirt.
5. Lastly, Hofburg's since the Florida Derby have been sensational and he is making an impressive appearance in his morning gallops on the Churchill Downs track. The colt is giving every indication he’ll move forward, not backward, off his solid Florida Derby effort.
[ More: Trainer Bill Mott talks to HRN about Hofburg ]
As this is one of the deepest Kentucky Derby fields in years, there seems to be a consensus about the Top 7 contenders including undefeated Justify and Magnum Moon, plus Mendelssohn, Bolt d'Oro, Audible, Good Magic and Vino Rosso. Hofburg is being ranked at the top of the next tier, along with My Boy Jack, Noble Indy and Solomini. These horses may go off between 20-1 and 30-1.
While Hofburg may not deserve a Top 3 ranking, his performance and professionalism to date certainly support a ranking of fourth or fifth in this year’s field. With morning line odds at 20-1, he would offer exceptional value. Ranking him a Top 5 contender would translate to odds of something closer to 8-1 to 10-1, but you'll get 20-1 instead.
Hofburg is just one horse with great odds that the Super Screener will be leveraging in building trifecta and superfecta tickets going after the big payoffs in the Kentucky Derby.
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