The 2020 Kentucky Derby's 'Super 6' early prospects
Authored by Mike Shutty, Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system handicaps weekly top stakes races around the country with a data-driven approach. But this all started with Shutty’s 20-year study of the Kentucky Derby, looking to end his frustrations on the first Saturday in May.
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What has resulted is a defined list of eight criteria he says can identify a potential Derby winner even at this early point in the prep season. That information may help, for instance, with Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 open now through 6 p.m. ET Sunday.
All of Shutty’s findings, including prep grades and those standards needed for a Derby winner, are available in a *free* guide now available below. Read on for more about his “Super 6” contenders, as Shutty says, “if the Derby were to be run as the next race for all.”
1. Tiz the Law (hits 100% of Super Screener criteria)
The Holy Bull (G3) hero, also a Grade 1 winner going back to last season, is the early Derby favorite. And he measures up when compared to recent winners on the first Saturday in May.
2. Gouverneur Morris (89%)
Shutty calls this Grade 1-placed allowance winner “the biggest surprise” on his list for the Todd Pletcher barn, adding that ahead of his foray into a major prep, “the time to bet him in the Derby future pools is now.”
3. Ete Indien (78%)
His wire-to-wire victory in last weekend’s Fountain of Youth (G2) received an “A” grade from Shutty as this colt escaped Tiz the Law’s shadow. Shutty prefers to see a 100-plus Brisnet Late Pace Figure, but Ete Indien did come close with a 99 in an easy win.
4. Authentic (78%)
The Bob Baffert trainee represented on this list can affirm his status as a top prospect in Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes (G2). At this point, Shutty sees him better than stablemates Thousand Words and Nadal. Keep in mind the debut winner Charlatan is awaiting a follow-up effort to be measured.
5. Independence Hall (74%)
Yes, he suffered his first career defeat in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, but Shutty considers that to be an especially strong prep. The knock on Independence Hall is lack of a pace progression, as he ran fast early and tired late. That’s more a product of the race flow than his running style.
6. Sole Volante (67%)
The Sam F. Davis winner is another back in action Saturday, this one leading the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His status as a closer than a pace presser is a knock from Shutty’s system, but Sole Volante gets the chance to prove he wasn’t a one-run fluke.
As a bonus, Shutty projects that the likes of Nadal, Thousand Words, Chance It and Major Fed are horses projected to make the biggest moves forward in their form cycles next out while Modernist, Storm the Court and Azul Coast could prove vulnerable at shorter prices.