10 Breeders' Cup statistics worth a closer look

It is more difficult than ever to separate the top win candidates in this year's very contentious Breeders' Cup. In some races, the difference between picking a horse first or fifth could be as little as one factor. With that in mind, statistics and trends will crucial in deciphering contenders from pretenders. 

Here, we take a closer look at vital statistics that might be overlooked by many bettors.

• Valorie Lund specializes with turf sprinters 

Lund is not a household name, but do not hesitate to play her speedy Bodenheimer in the Juvenile Turf Sprint based on the connections. In the last five years, Lund is 141 for 1047 (13%) with 43% of her horses finishing in the money for a $1.24 return on investment. A deeper dive shows that her speciality over this time has been turf sprints. She is a remarkable 13 for 35 (37%) while finishing in the money 63% of the time for a return on investment of $4.84.

• Steve Asmussen male runners dominate dirt sprints

Steve Asmussen is an ordinary 11 for 75 (15%) with male dirt runners in graded stakes this year. Seve  of those 11 wins have come sprinting. He is 7 for 20 (35%) this year with male dirt sprinters in graded stakes and has run in the money 60% of the time. Asmussen won the Sprint with Mitole last year and looks like a strong bet to do so again with Yaupon and Echo Town this year.

• Brad Cox looks poised to reach an elite level

Cox has quickly become one of the best trainers in the game and already has three Breeders' Cup wins from just 12 starters. Cox is so loaded for this year's Breeders' Cup — with Monomoy Girl, Aunt Pearl, Essential Quality and many others — that he could double his win total and is a good bet to lead the 2020 Breeders' Cup in wins. This would put him in the same sentence as Chad Brown and Bob Baffert, though the stats point to him already being in that league. Cox is 26 for 77 (34%) in graded stakes routes this year and has finished in the money 68% of the time.

• Aidan O'Brien's lack of recent success with North American runners

Aidan O'Brien has achieved countless accolades throughout the world and has won 12 Breeders' Cup races, but he is only one for his last 36 at the Breeders' Cup. Even more concerning is that O'Brien is only 5 for 113 (4%) with his North American runners in the past four years. O'Brien's runners always attract money, but it might be wise to focus on other European connections until he gets back on track.

• Kenny McPeek is due to break through in the Breeders' Cup

Some handicappers will eliminate Kenny McPeek's runners because he is 0 for 31 lifetime in Breeders' Cup races. That number does not tell the full story. Despite not winning a race, he has managed to get 16 of his 31 starters to run in the money. That 51% clip is much better than other trainers in similar winless situations (Patrick Biancone 13%, Christophe Clement 31.6%). McPeek clearly knows how to get a horse prepared for the Breeders' Cup but has simply run into bad luck. Do not be afraid to play Simply Ravishing or Swiss Skydiver.  

• Bill Mott thrives with female dirt runners

Bill Mott has built a Hall of Fame career by winning with all types of horses, but most consider him at his best in in turf races. Recent stats tell a different story, however. Mott is 51 for 205 (25%) with female dirt runners in the last two years. In that same span, Mott is 17% with overall runners. This bodes well for Frank's Rockette as she takes on the boys.

• Tom Drury does his best work at one mile or less on the dirt

Drury is 34 for 98 (35%) with 3-year-olds at a mile or less on the dirt. The high-percentage but low-profile trainer has been put on the map this year with Art Collector. The star 3-year-old colt could give Drury his first Breeders' Cup win as the Dirt Mile is in the trainer's biggest area of strength.

• George Weaver struggles in graded stakes races

Weaver is only 7 for 96 (7%) in graded stakes races with horses 3 years old and up in the last five years. This was a reason to bet against Vekoma before he was withdrawn from the Sprint and does not bode well for Point of Honor in the Distaff.

• George Arnold runners love Keeneland

Arnold has won 6 of 15 (40%) and has finished in the money a remarkable 14 for 15 (93%) in turf sprints at Keeneland the last five years. Make sure to include Leinster in at least exacta and trifecta wagering in the Turf Sprint.

• Neil Pessin has a tough time stringing together consecutive wins

Pessin is just 1 for 40 (3%) with 3-year-olds and up who won their last race. Though Bell's the One should receive a great trip in the Filly and Mare Sprint, she would have to buck this trend to win.