Tampa Bay Derby guide: Odds, analysis, PPs for Ky. Derby prep
The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 rolls on Saturday as Tampa Bay Downs is set to host the Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby.
The 1 1/16th-mile heat drew a field of 10 led by Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) winner No More Time and Holy Bull Stakes (G3) runner-up Domestic Product. Although the race may be seen as light on quality, it should be noted the Tampa Bay Derby has produced at least one starter a year in the run for the roses dating to 2004, including Kentucky Derby winners Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010.
Post time for the Tampa Bay Derby, race 11 of 12 on a stakes-laden program, is estimated for Saturday at 5:18 p.m. EST. The race will be shown live on FanDuel TV.
We have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Tampa Bay Derby as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
You may also check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page, where there are downloadable PPs for the Tampa Bay Derby and more, courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
Tampa Bay Derby best speed figures
| Post | Horse | ML | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heartened | 10-1 | 74 | 95 | 82 |
| 2 | Everdoit | 30-1 | 68 | 91 | 88 |
| 3 | Give Me Liberty | 30-1 | 73 | 96 | 82 |
| 4 | Good Money | 15-1 | 63 | 85 | 94 |
| 5 | Domestic Product | 8-5 | 87 | 104 | 94 |
| 6 | Catire Vizcaya | 30-1 | 62 | 81 | 80 |
| 7 | No More Time | 7-5 | 80 | 111 | 97 |
| 8 | Crazy Mason | 12-1 | 75 | 91 | 86 |
| 9 | Grand Mo the First | 12-1 | 79 | 103 | 97 |
| 10 | Sturdy | 8-1 | 83 | 107 | 94 |
Looking at the pace
The pace projector is calling for a quick tempo in the Tampa Bay Derby, with Everdoit vying for command with Good Money and No More Time.
Pace projector courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks for the Tampa Bay Derby
This week's Super Screener has narrowed down a contentious renewal of the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs to two horses while fading morning-line favorite Dynamic Pricing.
"Austere was last seen finishing a decent fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf," Super Screener creator Mike Shutty said. "The Brendan Walsh barn is quite handy bringing long-layoff horses to form, so concern over the extended break is muted some. Like Waskesiu, she distributes her energy in an ideal, balanced way that makes both quite tactical. Super Screener has come up with very little separation between this pair, so it's best to use them together in vertical wagers."
Be sure to take advantage of HRN’s $197 Super Screener offer that covers you all the way through to Kentucky Derby 2024. That’s nine weeks of Super Screener analysis for one low price.
Matt Shifman's analysis of the Tampa Bay Derby sees Domestic Product getting the nod up top, and Shifman hopes Grand Mo the First can hit the ticket in order to sweeten the exotics.
Ed DeRosa's fair odds for the Tampa Bay Derby indicate Grand Mo the First and Sturdy could offer the best value at post time, though morning-line favorite No More Time will be a tough customer.
Ashley Tamulonis and Laurie Ross went Head to Head handicapping the Tampa Bay Derby. The pair landed on an exacta box of Domestic Product and No More Time, though they each decided on different horses to round out the trifecta and superfecta.
MSNBC political analyst and NBC Sports racing handicapper Steve Kornacki joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to share his opinions on the Tampa Bay Derby and more.
Here is the field for the Tampa Bay Derby (G3):