Fair odds: Small but Almighty field in Kentucky Derby prep

Owen Almighty was so lowly regarded after his runner-up finish to John Hancock in the Sam F. Davis Stakes four weeks ago at Tampa Bay Downs that he did not even make the field for the next Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Sure, there is some thought that he is a one-turn and-or middle-distance type, but put me squarely in the camp that he has earned at least another chance at this 1 1/16-mile configuration in Saturday's Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick and Patch Adams, who ran one of the fastest Ragozin Sheets figures of his generation, understandably are the top two choices here, but there is reason to oppose both.

Chancer McPatrick has not raced since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which other than winner Citizen Bull coming back to win his 3-year-old debut, has not exactly been a productive race. Chancer McPatrick is in my Kentucky Derby top 10, but at the expected price here I'm willing to take a shot against him.

Patch Adams took a big step backward off that great maiden win when fourth at 4-5 in the Southwest (G3) six weeks ago at Oaklawn. But the Brad Cox-trained Into Mischief colt has worked steadily since and has the fast race to run back to. So head to head at similar prices, I'd take Patch Adams over Chancer McPatrick.

The biggest underlay of the bunch is Chancer McPatrick's uncoupled stablemate from the barn of Chad Brown. Hill Road was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and improvement can be expected the first time running for Brown, who adds blinkers. But the Ragozin numbers just aren't there to take this one as the third choice.

I will look to play Owen Almighty to win and keyed with Patch Adams in the verticals.