Tampa Bay Derby fair odds: 1 stands out in Ky. Derby prep

The Tampa Bay Derby looks to be a two-horse race between Holy Bull runner-up no. 5 Domestic Product and Sam F. Davis winner no. 7 No More Time. They are 8-5 and 7-5 favorites, respectively, on the morning line. They are also the two of the ten entrants to have at least placed in a graded stakes on dirt.

I'll rip the bandage off and say point-blank that I overwhelmingly prefer No More Time, who was 3.3-1 against 11 others in the Davis and won that one gate-to-wire.

There are, however, two negatives related to that performance and what that means for the Tampa Bay Derby.

First, Paco Lopez was aboard that day but stays at Gulfstream this weekend, so last year's Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Javier Castellano has the mount. The Racing Hall of Fame jockey is no downgrade, of course, but I don't love the fourth different jockey in as many starts, particularly off a win.

Second, gate-to-wire worked last time, but it's impossible to ignore the numbers say that's not the ideal style for this 1 1/16-mile trip. No. 2 Everdoit, who I give very little chance to win this race, lost his rider last time and was never able to be a part of the pace, but that's his style, and if he keeps leading rider Antonio Gallardo up for this, he'll at least makes this more difficult this time.

Those are the reasons that No More Time should not be odds-on, but he is the most likely winner. He is the fastest, and we know he can handle the trip and distance. There's a chance he will not even be favored, but even if he slightly is, I expect the value to be there.

It won't be there on Domestic Product, who certainly wouldn't shock with a win here, but coming out of a race in which he finished in front of champion Fierceness following closing his two-year-old season with the now-key Remsen, the money will show on this one.

On the outside, either no. 9 Grand Mo the First or no. 10 Sturdy can make some noise late, either closing fast to finish behind No More Time or if our top pick is softened up early, maybe even winning the whole thing.

From a wagering perspective, Sturdy is shorter on the track morning line, but Horse Racing Nation actually projects him longer than No More Time. Regardless, both will be longer than Domestic Product and are worth keying with our top pick.