Tampa Bay Derby: Odds and analysis for Ky. Derby prep

Saturday’s Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby is the second of two stops on the Tampa Bay Downs road to Kentucky Derby 2024, and 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points are available to the eligible finishers.

In the last 10 years Tampa Derby winners Tacitus and Destin went on to finish second in the Belmont Stakes, with Tacitus also getting third in the run for the roses. Tapit Trice, Classic Causeway, Carpe Diem and Verrazano became Grade 1 winners with career earnings of more than $1 million.

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 11 on an 12-race card with post time set for 5:18 p.m. EST.

1. Heartened, 4-1. Street Boss – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 4: 1-1-2 - $54,300. Heartened comes from the same ownership group that won the Gotham (G3) last Saturday for Christophe Clement. He broke his maiden in his fourth try at Tampa last month by more than four lengths as an odds-on favorite while racing on the lead against a six-horse field. Heartened had debuted at Aqueduct in September and then ran twice on the turf, hitting the board in all of this starts. Toss.

2. Everdoit, 30-1. Gary D – Kevin Rice / Antonio Gallardo – 5: 1-1-0 - $46,750. Everdoit broke his maiden in his second career start at Tampa by a couple of lengths going two turns for trainer Kevin Rice. The Florida-bred cut back to a sprint in an allowance and ran second the whole way. To start the year Everdoit was part of the pace in the Mucho Macho Man but ended up sixth. They tried the Derby trail in the Sam F. Davis (G3), but he lost the rider coming out of the gate. Toss.

3. Give Me Liberty, 15-1. Constitution – Robertino Diodoro / Pablo Morales – 3: 0-2-0 - $46,957. Give Me Liberty was claimed from his first start in November for $100,000 at Churchill, when he did very little running. He was moved to Oaklawn and since has finished second twice while stretching out in distance. Give Me Liberty moves to the Derby trail as a maiden. Toss.

4. Good Money, 6-1. Good Magic – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 1: 1-0-0 - $18,560. Good Money made his first start at Tampa in January for Chad Brown and Calumet Farm a winning one when he closed from a stalking position going seven furlongs at 4-1. Toss.

5. Domestic Product, 3-1. Practical Joke – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 4: 1-1-0 - $104,200. Domestic Product broke his maiden in his second try by 4 1/2 lengths going nine furlongs, which happened in October at Aqueduct. In December the Chad Brown runner was seventh in the Remsen (G2). He made his 2024 debut on the Derby trail and finished second in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park, earning 5 Derby points. Top choice.

6. Catire Vizcaya, 30-1. Anchor Down – Juan Carlos Aliva / Marcos Meneses – 4: 1-1-0 - $62,725. Catire Vizcaya began his career with a pair of starts at Saratoga in maiden races that were restricted by auction sales price. He won in August after running second in his first race. Catire Vizcaya was then 10th in a stakes race at Delaware and fifth in a Tampa allowance. Toss.

7. No More Time, 5-2. Not This Time – Jose D’Angelo / Javier Castellano – 4: 2-1-0 - $156,780. No More Time made his first three starts at Gulfstream. An Iowa-bred who sold for $40,000 as a yearling, he got his maiden win in his second start by nearly seven lengths going the one-turn mile. In the Mucho Macho Man he hopped at the start and then was rank, but he put it all together when he won the Sam F. Davis on the front end as the 3-1 favorite, picking up 10 Derby points. The one to beat.

8. Crazy Mason, 15-1. Coal Front – Greg Sacco / Mychel Sanchez – 7: 2-2-1 - $104,150. Crazy Mason will make his eighth career start in the Tampa Bay Derby. He will need to run more like he did when winning an allowance at Tampa than his uncompetitive effort in the Sam F. Davis. Blinkers go back on. Toss.

9. Grand Mo the First, 10-1. Uncle Mo – Victor Barboza Jr. / Samy Camacho – 4: 2-0-2 - $86,650. Grand Mo the First won his first two starts on the Tapeta track at Gulfstream in short sprint races. He stretched out to a mile in the Zuma Beach (G3) on the turf and rallied to get third. In his 2024 debut in the Swale, he had a bit of a rough trip and finished third. The son of Uncle Mo ran well on three surfaces and will most likely sit a stalking trip. Live long shot.

10. Sturdy, 12-1. Good Magic – George Weaver / Junior Alvarado – 3: M-1-2 - $38,300. Sturdy will make his first start in a stakes race still a maiden after three tries. He debuted at the end of the Saratoga meeting and was third behind a pair of future Derby trail winners in Locked and Drum Roll Please. In October he was second behind Domestic Product, who is the second choice in the Tampa Derby morning line. Last month Sturdy was third beaten by only a half-length at Gulfstream. Faced good horses.

Summary: The Tampa Bay Derby drew a field of 10 horses who range from still being maidens to a Derby trail winner. Five horses have only a maiden win to their credit and only two have won Derby points. Overall, none of the horses have Kentucky Derby-quality speed figures.

In the rundown of the field, six of them were summarized as a “toss,” leaving the two favorites and two long shots. Domestic Product is the top choice. The betting strategy is a trifecta box with the favorites Domestic Power and No More Time and the long shots Grand Mo the First and Sturdy in hopes that the long shots will hit the board.