Tampa Bay Derby 2019: Odds and analysis

The Tampa Bay Derby, run at 1 1/16 miles, is scheduled as Race 11 of 12. Points toward a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate on May 4 will be awarded to the first four finishers on a 50-20-10-5 scale. Post time is 5:25 p.m. ET.

A look at the 11-horse field is below, along with the morning line:

1. Admire, 12-1 (Cairo Prince – Dale Romans/Robby Albarado – 3:1-0-0 – $58,060): Admire cuts back a sixteenth of a mile here and will try to rebound from fifth in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct on Feb. 2. The colt broke his maiden at second asking Nov. 24 at Churchill Downs going 1 1/18 miles in an off-the-turf maiden special weight. He stalked the pace and fended off a rallying opponent by half a length over a sloppy track. He turned in a sharp five-eighths in 59.67 at Gulfstream March 3 and gets the chance to improve with a race under him this season. Use underneath.

2. Sir Winston, 12-1 (Awesome Again – Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux – 6:2-0-1 - $89,050): Sir Winston has done his best running on Woodbine’s synthetic surface. He hit the board in all three starts there and picked up a win in the Dec. 8 Display Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. He’s run on both dirt and turf and last finished fourth in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct. Though he’s been mid-pack if not further back in most of his races, he was just off the pace in his Display win and in a similar position when he lost a Woodbine maiden race by a head. Pretender.

3. Lord Dragon, 30-1 (Oxbow – Jordan Blair/Jose Bracho – 6:1-2-1 – $35,334): Expect Lord Dragon to save his run for later in the race, but he’s up against a tough field coming off his first victory. He’s improved with distance in his last two starts, both at Tampa, and earned his first victory at a mile and 40 yards. The toughest race he’s been in so far is a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight during Keeneland’s fall meet as Plus Que Parfait and Harvey Wallbanger ran 1-2. Lord Dragon didn’t do much running and finished 10th. Toss.

5. Well Defined, 7-2 (With Distinction – Kathleen O’Connell/Pablo Morales – 7:3-1-1 – $490,570): Blinkers appeared to change the game for Well Defined. He had a successful start at 2 while racing at Gulfstream, including a 7 ½-length win in the Florida Sire In Reality Stakes, in which he led every step around two turns. He was off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Jan. 5 Mucho Macho Man, but with blinkers on in Tampa’s Sam F. Davis (G3), Well Defined took an early lead and went all the way to complete 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.70. He has Tampa experience on his side, but is facing some tough new names here. Win contender.

6. Outshine, 8-1 (Malibu Moon – Todd Pletcher/Joel Rosario – 3:2-0-0 – $80,900): Outshine returned from an eight-month layoff to win a seven-furlong optional claiming race at Gulfstream Feb. 10. The colt rallied from mid-pack, turned four wide and won by two lengths. He was a debut winner at Belmont in May and finished off the board in the Tremont Stakes during the Belmont Stakes Festival. Board hitter.

7. Win Win Win, 5-2 (Hat Trick – Michael Trombetta/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4:3-1-0 – $127,300): Win Win Win is 1 ½ lengths away from a perfect record and has shown a versatile running style. The one mark against him is he has not been tested around two turns yet. He was just behind the pace in his first two starts at Laurel Park and broke last in the Heft Stakes, then facing just four rivals on Dec. 29. He failed to catch multiple stakes winner Alwaysmining but rebounded with a 7 ¼-length win and a track record time of 1:20.89 in Tampa’s Jan. 19 Pasco Stakes. Win Win Win also broke slow in the Pasco. Win contender.

8. The Right Path, 15-1 (Quality Road – Jorge Duarte Jr./Joe Bravo – 2:1-1-0 – $47,300): The Right Path has showed talent in his short career. He won on debut Nov. 3 at Aqueduct, where he pressed the pace at six furlongs. He then ran seven-eighths on Feb. 10 in optional claiming company at Gulfstream. The Todd Pletcher runner Outshine was a noticeable winner that day, but The Right Path was elevated to second from third after Admiral Lynch drifted out, causing interference. This will be his first two-turn test. Pretender.

9. Dunph, 20-1 (Mike Maker/Daniel Centeno): Though he hit the board in the Remington Springboard Mile back in December, Dunph hasn’t reproduced his 7 ¾-length win from the Spendthrift Juvenile Stallion Stakes back in October. He was ninth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), though it was a sloppy track, and faded to 11th in the Risen Star (G2), his 3-year-old debut. Toss.

10. Tacitus, 12-1 (Tapit – Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz – 2:1-0-0 – $43,000): If breeding alone could win a race, Tacitus would have little competition being by Tapit and out of champion Close Hatches. The Tampa Bay Derby represents a big step up for the Juddmonte homebred. He has been away since Nov. 10, when he rallied to win a one-mile maiden special weight event at Aqueduct by a neck. He finished fourth in his career debut during Belmont’s fall meet, not far from the pace in that race, which included King for a Day and Kentucky Wildcat. Tacitus is unproven at this level, but tough to ignore given his connections and lineage. Live longshot.

11. Zenden, 8-1 (Fed Biz – Victor Barboza Jr./Samy Camacho – 3:2-1-0 – $106,770): Zenden won his first two starts sprinting at Gulfstream Park, including the Dec. 8 Buffalo Man Stakes. He also gets credit for finishing second to Call Paul in the Swale (G3) to kick off the year. Zenden has shown to come off the pace in his three starts. He’s another one that has done little wrong so far, but this will be his first race around two turns and he’ll be facing tougher competition. Use underneath.

Summary: Well Defined looks like he’ll have the chance to take them all the way again at Tampa Bay Downs. Should Win Win Win break better, he could be close to that pace though and add pressure. Several horses are looking for a breakthrough victory here, and Dream Maker, a colt Casse has been high on since last season, appears to lead that group off his romping Fair Grounds victory. We might find out if he really is that good against this field.