Taking a Stand: The case against Letruska in the Distaff

Breeders’ Cup is finally upon us, and the excitement in the air is palpable. Every year, the Breeders’ Cup races are stacked with loaded fields and filled with horses who appear unstoppable. Yet year after year, we see countless favorites who looked dominant entering the race get upset on the world’s biggest stage. One such favorite who I am taking a stand against is Letruska (8-5) in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

At first glance, it is difficult to find much to knock about Letruska’s form. She has won six of her seven starts this year while dancing every dance and taking on all challengers. She established her claim to stardom when beating the all-world mare Monomoy Girl, and she has not looked back since.

[Breeders' Cup Distaff 2021: Meet the fastest contenders]

Despite her numerous accolades, there are still reasons to be wary of accepting her at a short price. First, one must evaluate the pace scenario of this race. Letruska is a completely one-dimensional, need-the-lead type of runner. Her lone defeat this year came in the Azeri Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn, where Shedaresthedevil managed to secure the lead over Letruska and beat her to the wire.

Given her undefeated record while making the lead and winless record while not making the lead, there is no doubt that the plan for Letruska is to send early and try to hold them off late. However, this makes her quite susceptible to what projects to be a very quick and contentious pace. A number of horses in this race also do their best running on the lead, including Horologist, Shedaresthedevil and Private Mission. Private Mission has had success rating in her last two starts, but she was drawn wide and able to avoid taking any kickback in both of those races. Given her rail draw Saturday, it seems the only choice for Prat is to ride her aggressively early.

Supporters of Letruska might argue that she has won while up against a fast pace before, such as when she won the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga this summer. She did carve out honest fractions that day, but she also had the distinct advantage of doing so over a track that was heavily slanted toward speed. That race was conducted on Travers Day, and NYRA often has been suspected of juicing up the track on marquee days, resulting in extremely strong speed biases. Of the seven dirt races at Saratoga on that day, all seven winners were either first or second at the first call, indicating just how difficult it was to make up ground.

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Recent history also is against Letruska. In the last 10 years, only one horse has won this race in gate-to-wire fashion, Royal Delta in 2012. Furthermore, Del Mar traditionally has been tougher on early speed than tracks such as Keeneland or Saratoga. During the 2021 Del Mar summer meet, 26 percent of dirt routes were won on the lead. Comparatively, 41 percent of dirt routes were wired at the 2021 Keeneland fall meet and more than 33 percent were wired at Saratoga this summer. Del Mar is a slower, deeper track, and it remains to be seen how well Letruska will handle the new surface.

Finally, while Letruska is admittedly the fastest horse in this race on her day, she isn’t significantly faster than a few of her top rivals. Letruska’s last out TimeformUS speed figure of 120 is strong, but Royal Flag and Private Mission also ran a 120 in their last race as well. Shedaresthedevil and Horologist didn’t fire their best shot last out, but both of them have run huge races in the 120s two and three starts back. Although the Daily Racing Form’s Beyer speed figures show Letruska as a standout, TimeformUS, Thorograph and even Brisnet all tell a much different story, showing a fairly evenly matched field between the top contenders.

Letruska has endured a warrior’s campaign this year, making seven starts and shipping to six tracks. It’s fair to wonder if the 5-year-old mare might be getting a little weary at the tail end of such a grueling campaign while shipping across the country to California for the first time. Given the contentious pace setup and steep competition in this race, I will be taking a stand against Letruska on Saturday.

This race presents an interesting challenge to handicappers because many of the logical alternatives to Letruska, such as Shedaresthedevil and Private Mission, are facing the same unfavorable set of circumstances as the favorite. Both of them have had more success coming off the pace than Letruska, but it seems likely that they both will be involved in a hot early pace.

Instead, I’m looking toward runners in this race who do their best running late in the stretch. Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this affair with Royal Flag and Dunbar Road. Royal Flag has been very sharp this year, posting career-best efforts in each of her last two starts. She was beaten by Letruska in the Personal Ensign, but she exited that race no worse for wear when posting a dominant victory in the Beldame Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park. Her last-out Thorograph figure is the strongest last-out figure of anyone in this race.

The main concern about Royal Flag is that she is nearly 6 years old now, and it is possible that her big last race coupled with only four weeks of rest and an arduous cross-country ship might result in her bouncing on Saturday.

Although many folks will be quick to write off her stablemate, I believe Dunbar Road has a huge chance in this race. Dunbar Road showed enormous promise as a 3-year-old, but she failed to progress at 4 and then was a huge disappointment in her first start at 5. But she enters this race with a very promising form pattern after showing mild improvement in each start this year.

In the Personal Ensign, she was beaten only half a length by Letruska and was in a three-horse photo finish with Royal Flag and Bonny South for second place. Dunbar Road also managed to subtly improve next out when she turned the tables and finished more than two lengths ahead of Bonny South. She was no threat to Letruska that day, but Letruska was lone speed in that contest and enjoyed a loose lead with moderate fractions, a situation unlikely to occur in this race.

Dunbar Road appears to be inching forward to a new career-best effort after pairing her 3-year-old top last out. She needs to run a career best to pull off the upset here, but I believe she will get the right pace setup and is trending in the right direction to be worth a gamble at her morning line of 15-1.

Lastly, I believe both of the 3-year-old fillies have an outside chance in this race. I prefer Clairiere to Malathaat given the discrepancy in pricing, as I believe Malathaat was an early bloomer but Clairiere has continued developing and narrowed the gap considerably. Her last race in the Cotillion (G1) was ultra-impressive when romping to overcome a slow pace. I would include them both on larger tickets.

Letruska has done nothing wrong this entire year, but she faces arguably more adversity in this race than ever before. She is a most deserving favorite, but I will prefer Dunbar Road, Royal Flag, Clairiere, and Malathaat to run her down late.

How to play it: Tarnawa looks easily the best after defections in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, so we will double into her. Press the combinations with Royal Flag and Dunbar Road more than those with Clairiere and Malathaat.

Race 10

Daily Double: 2,3,5,11 / 13

Win: 11

Exacta: 2,11 / 2,6,11

Taking a Stand overall record: 5-1

Stands Taken:

Sept 18, 2021 - Raging Bull (2-1 ML, 7-2 final odds, 3rd place finish)

Sept 25, 2021 - Moretti (2-1 ML, 2-1 final odds, 5th place finish)

Oct 2, 2021 - Dr. Schivel (2-1 ML, 9-5 final odds, 1st place finish)

Oct 9, 2021 - Double Thunder (4-1 ML, 7-1 final odds, 2nd place finish)

Oct 16, 2021 - Higher Truth (2-1 ML, 6-5 final odds, 3rd place finish)

Oct 23, 2021 - Tamahere (9-5 ML, 2-1 final odds, 6th place finish)