Taking a Stand: Maxfield looks vulnerable in Clark Stakes

This week on Taking a Stand, we are returning to Churchill Downs for the Clark Stakes (G1). The Clark is one of the few remaining Grade 1 races for the year, and it has drawn a stout field full of wiley veterans as well as promising newcomers. Maxfield has been installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite, but he appears extremely vulnerable coming off of consecutive losses for the first time in his career.

Maxfield is a horse who has been a huge fan favorite ever since capturing the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland during his two-year-old season. He has done little wrong in his career, posting seven wins from ten tries and never missing the board. Despite his impressive accomplishments, there are a few reasons to be cautious of backing this colt at a short price.

While Maxfield has certainly racked up the wins in his career, I do question the quality of many of those victories. With all due respect to the horses involved, the likes of Sonneman, Chess Chief, and Visitant are Grade 3 horses at best. Most of his victories have been in very soft fields with some exposed older horses or against horses who were clearly out of form.

Since his victory in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) over two years ago, Maxfield has been unable to find the winner’s circle when placed in Grade 1 company. His three attempts at the level have resulted in the only three defeats of his career, including his last two losses in the Woodward Stakes (G1) and Whitney Stakes (G1).

One may be more forgiving for his effort in the Whitney when losing to eventual Breeder’s Cup Classic (G1) champion Knicks Go. However, that field may not be as strong as it initially appeared. Swiss Skydiver returned to finish a well-beaten fifth in her subsequent start, and Silver State lost in a non-graded stakes at Parx before failing to make his presence felt at all in the Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Furthermore, it is tougher to excuse his defeat last out when he was soundly beaten by Art Collector as the odds-on favorite. While Art Collector did enjoy a pace advantage that day, it’s still discouraging to see Maxfield fail to threaten, never getting within a length of the winner.

Art Collector didn’t exactly back up that effort when tracking a lukewarm pace in the Breeder’s Cup Classic (G1) and faded to a tired sixth place finish. The pace in that race largely held together, so Art Collector’s disappointing effort doesn’t flatter the Woodward form.

It feels as if Maxfield’s connections have spotted him extremely well, finding soft spots to run while mostly dodging the top tier of older dirt horses. It doesn’t inspire confidence that they elected to skip the Breeder’s Cup races and instead target a weaker race only a few weeks later. Maxfield has rewarded them with some nice wins, but it is beginning to feel like he is somewhat exposed as a Grade 2 or Grade 3 caliber horse who just hasn’t improved enough to compete at the Grade 1 level.

While his consistency is certainly one of his strengths, there are others in this field who have more upside and who have already run races fast enough to win. Given the appeal of some of the contenders and Maxfield’s poor recent history in Grade 1 events, I will be taking a stand against Maxfield to win this race.

Midnight Bourbon is the clear alternative to the chalk, and I am extremely high on his chances in this event. There is a noticeable lack of any early speed in this race other than Midnight Bourbon, so he projects to have everything his own way on the lead.

Some may argue he has been a bit of a tough luck loser lately, racking up a number of runner up finishes but lacking in wins. While I concede that is a fair point, I don’t believe Midnight Bourbon has finished second due to any tendency to “hang”, but rather that he simply has been running into better horses such as Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie.

On TimeFormUS, Midnight Bourbon is actually faster than Maxfield based on both of his last two races. Whereas Maxfield has exited some races of dubious quality, the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) has proven to be a strong field. Hot Rod Charlie exited that race to run fourth in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, AmericanRevolution went on to crush a New York stakes by 11 lengths while posting a 126 TimeformUS speed figure, and Speaker’s Corner returned to annihilate an allowance race with a speed figure of 125.

Midnight Bourbon is an excellent key for any horizontal or vertical wagers, as he should enjoy a tactical pace advantage while already being the fastest horse in the field.

It is difficult to strongly endorse any other runners in this field, but the one horse who I am intrigued by is King Fury (12-1). King Fury has posted some very impressive races as a three-year-old, and he is lightly raced and flashed enough potential that he could likely be capable of even better races than what he has shown.

He had no chance in his last race when trying to close into an incredibly slow pace over a sloppy track, and he now returns to Churchill Downs where he is three for four lifetime. His main obstacle in this race will once again be what appears to be a slow, uncontested pace up front.

King Fury needs an honest pace to unleash his devastating late kick, and it seems unlikely that he gets the right setup. However, at generous odds of 12-1 and an assurance that he will be running on late, he’s a good underneath bet to fill out exactas and trifectas.

Maxfield is a great horse, but I think his record is inflated from beating up on soft fields, and he appears exposed whenever facing Grade 1 company. Midnight Bourbon should make his own trip on the lead and is the likeliest winner, and King Fury should be coming on late to collect a minor award.

Race 11

$25 Trifecta: 1 / 8 / 5

$10 Trifecta: 1 / 5 / 8

Last week, we took a stand against Obligatory. Unfortunately, she ended up getting a dream setup behind a stack of five horses dueling for the lead and setting a wicked pace. She mowed them all down late under a great ride by Rosario.

Taking a Stand overall record: 6-3

Stands Taken:Sept 18, 2021 - Raging Bull (2-1 ML, 7-2 final odds, 3rd place finish)

Sept 25, 2021 - Moretti (2-1 ML, 2-1 final odds, 5th place finish)

Oct 2, 2021 - Dr. Schivel (2-1 ML, 9-5 final odds, 1st place finish)

Oct 9, 2021 - Double Thunder (4-1 ML, 7-1 final odds, 2nd place finish)

Oct 16, 2021 - Higher Truth (2-1 ML, 6-5 final odds, 3rd place finish)

Oct 23, 2021 - Tamahere (9-5 ML, 2-1 final odds, 6th place finish)

Oct 30, 2021 - Golden Pal (7-2 ML, 5/2 final odds, 1st place finish)

Nov 6, 2021 - Letruska (8-5 ML, 8/5 final odds, 10th place finish)

Nov 20, 2021 - Obligatory (5/2 ML, 6/5 final odds, 1st place finish)