Taking a Stand: Against the favorite in Springboard Mile

With winter upon us and the national spotlight shifting south, the action heats up at Remington Park for this year’s penultimate Derby points race, the Springboard Mile. While this race rarely provides us with a future Kentucky Derby winner, it always draws a diverse field of 2-year-old colts who ship in from various circuits across the country.

This year’s rendition seems no different, with a robust field of nine runners. Make It Big (7-2) has been installed as the tepid morning line favorite, and he may be quite vulnerable against this field.

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In the days before speed figures, where visual impressions and final times were the only tools at our disposal, a horse like Make It Big would appear to be an absolute standout in this group. He has simply trounced his competition in both of his career starts while staying unbeaten.

However, when taking a deeper look one can certainly begin to see a few chinks in the armor.

The first issue with Make It Big is that he has not run particularly faster than any of his competition in this race. While the Daily Racing Form’s Beyer speed figures do show Make It Big as one of the faster horses in the race with his last-out 74 Beyer, he’s far from a standout.

If you compare the TimeformUS figures, he has actually only run an 81 in that event, good enough to make him precisely the sixth fastest horse in the race. While the subsequent runbacks have suggested that figure is likely a little too low, Make It Big is still simply a contender at best given his past performances.

Many handicappers will be quick to point out the margin of victory when arguing that Make It Big “could have run much faster if he was urged.” I’ll concede that perhaps his debut race could have been a point or two faster if urged, but more often than not horses do not leave significantly faster races on the table.

We’ve seen horses such as Princess Noor dominate weak fields with mediocre speed figures while appearing to be under wraps, and in general they fail to improve their performance when they are ultimately asked for more. Make It Big’s last victory was far from a stroll in the park, where he was under an aggressive drive for the last 3/16ths of the race to get up for the win.

The second challenge with backing Make It Big as the favorite is that it’s unclear what he has been beating in those Gulfstream races. Neither of his two races have produced a single next-out winner from seven runners, and pre-Championship Meet Gulfstream isn’t exactly known for having the strongest groups of 2-year-olds. Make It Big will also need to navigate a new distance while trying two turns for the first time of his career.

Saffie Joseph Jr has amazing statistics with this move, as he is 10 for 19 (53 percent) with a $2.74 ROI with 2-year-old horses going from sprints to routes on dirt. That being said, the old handicapping adage still applies that it is generally unwise to back a short-priced horse trying something for the first time.

Third, Make It Big will have to ship west and run over a markedly different track than what he has been experiencing at Gulfstream.

While Joseph’s overall statistics with shippers are decent, the vast majority of shipping wins have come at tracks like Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park West. His numbers are much poorer when shipping outside of Florida, especially in stakes events.

Over the last five years, Joseph is a mere 3 for 29 (11 percent) with a $0.57 ROI when shipping outside of Florida in non-graded stakes. He is certainly a trainer that excels over his home track, but his horses often struggle to take their game on the road.

Make It Big may be sitting on significant improvement with the stretch out to a mile, but that remains a significant uncertainty. Having beaten suspect fields and being unproven outside of Gulfstream, we will fade Make It Big in the Springboard Mile.

With such lightly raced horses, there is no shortage of viable options to support in this race. Bye Bye Bobby is arguably the most intriguing horse in this field.

He broke his maiden in a stakes race at Zia Park, and he showed a lot of maturity when rallying wide from off the pace to win going away. He did get a fast pace to chase after that day, but it wasn’t as if the race was totally falling apart. The horses who were first and third at the first call still finished in the top three.

Bye Bye Bobby must also stretch out for the first time in his career, but his pedigree suggests he should relish the extra distance. He is a half sibling to route winners War Treaty (stakes placed) and Poker Player (G3 winner). His debut win at Zia Park is nearly fast enough to win, and with the anticipated improvement from first to second career start, Bye Bye Bobby will be a major threat. Unlike Joseph, Todd Fincher does excellent when shipping horses.

From a small sample size of nine horses he has sent to Remington Park, four have won (44 percent) for a $3.84 ROI. Fincher won this race last year with Senor Buscador, and he holds a strong hand once again with Bye Bye Bobby.

I would also give consideration to a few others in this race, including Revenir, Osbourne, and Contact. Revenir has improved in each start of his career and already owns a win at the mile distance here at Remington Park. His last race at seven furlongs was a big effort, and he seems most likely to appreciate the return to a route.

Osbourne didn’t really improve last out at Churchill Downs, but he didn’t have to in order to get the win. The horse who defeated him in his debut, Howling Time, went on to win the Street Sense Stakes next out with an 83 Beyer. It is encouraging that Julien Leparoux elects to travel to retain the mount, and he should work out a good stalking trip from off the pace.

Speaking of the pace, both of the Asmussen charges have plenty of it. Concept is likely the quicker of the two, although Classic Moment is the one who gets the services of normal jockey Stewart Elliot.

I actually prefer Concept here. His race two back in the Kip Deville Stakes is the best race of any horse in this field. He admittedly backed up quite a bit last time out, but it’s possible he may have reacted to that huge race earlier when wheeled back on a month of rest. That effort isn’t as bad as it appears on paper, considering that the race completely fell apart after the pace got too hot early.

Concept finished best of the horses involved in the early pace that day, and he should be able to set a more moderate tempo going a longer distance. It seems unlikely that Concept and Classic Moment will both duel for the lead given the same trainer and common partial ownership of Winchell Thoroughbreds.

Therefore, Make It Big is a horse with something to prove, and he’s not a great bet at likely short odds. Bye Bye Bobby is the top selection, but Revenir, Osbourne, and Concept are all upset candidates.

How to play it:

Race 12

Win: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 / 1,8,9

Previously, we took a stand against Americanrevolution. When it rains it pours, and Americanrevolution barely got up to squeak out the win as the chalk.

Taking a Stand overall record: 6-5

Stands Taken:

Sept 18, 2021 - Raging Bull (2-1 ML, 7-2 final odds, 3rd place finish)

Sept 25, 2021 - Moretti (2-1 ML, 2-1 final odds, 5th place finish)

Oct 2, 2021 - Dr. Schivel (2-1 ML, 9-5 final odds, 1st place finish)

Oct 9, 2021 - Double Thunder (4-1 ML, 7-1 final odds, 2nd place finish)

Oct 16, 2021 - Higher Truth (2-1 ML, 6-5 final odds, 3rd place finish)

Oct 23, 2021 - Tamahere (9-5 ML, 2-1 final odds, 6th place finish)

Oct 30, 2021 - Golden Pal (7/2 ML, 5/2 final odds, 1st place finish)

Nov 6, 2021 - Letruska (8/5 ML, 8/5 final odds, 10th place finish)

Nov 20, 2021 - Obligatory (5/2 ML, 6/5 final odds, 1st place finish)

Nov 27, 2021 - Maxfield (6/5 ML, 6/5 final odds, 1st place finish)