Taking a Stand: Against the favorite in Breeders' Futurity

Welcome to Taking a Stand.

In this weekly column, I will be identifying vulnerable favorites and evaluating alternate horses to use in key weekend stakes races. Many horseplayers are far too quick to use a weak favorite defensively while playing not to lose.

However, some of the biggest scores can come as a result of taking an aggressive stance against a horse the public will heavily support. This column is not for the faint of heart, but tremendous opportunities abound for those steely-eyed souls willing to play against the masses. 

The Breeders’ Futurity has been a key race in recent years, won by superstar horses such as Essential Quality, Maxfield, and Knicks Go. This year, it seems the Breeders’ Futurity lacks a true standout, with Double Thunder installed as the tepid 4-1 morning line favorite.

He is unquestionably the most proven horse in this field, as he is the only runner with multiple wins on his resume. Many folks would argue that his experience makes him squarely the horse to beat in a race full of lightly raced newcomers.

However, I actually view his four starts as a negative in this context. While his experience may be of some benefit, I believe it actually highlights the fact that he is somewhat exposed at this stage of his career. First, his three victories have been against weak fields.

It’s peculiar that Todd Pletcher debuted this colt at Monmouth Park for significantly less purse money than what was available during the entire Saratoga meet. This could suggest a lack of confidence in his ability. Double Thunder went on to beat a dreadful field in his debut, as the five runners to run back from that race are a combined 0/18.

Additionally, the Bashford Manor (G3) was also a very weak field for the level. Despite the margin of victory, the final time and resulting speed figures were rather pedestrian. In his only start against legitimate graded stakes competition, Double Thunder was embarrassed by High Oak and Gunite, beaten 10 lengths in the Saratoga Special (G2).

Pletcher once again sought out a soft spot for Double Thunder last time in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth, where he was able to get the job done over completely overmatched foes.

Double Thunder appears to be a horse who has been taking advantage of some very easy races full of mediocre competition. I believe Pletcher has campaigned this colt in this manner because he does not have confidence in his ability to run with the best of the 2-year-old division.

This race is full of horses that are extremely lightly raced, with only one or two starts in their career and trying a route for the first time. 2-year-old horses are capable of massive improvement from start to start. Double Thunder now has four races under his belt, but none of them are fast enough to win today’s race.

In fact, seven of today’s entrants have run a faster race than the best race Double Thunder has ever ran. Nearly all of those seven horses have only one or two starts, suggesting they are likely open to further improvement. 

While Double Thunder is the most proven horse in this field, he is also the most exposed. Given his race record and the strength of his connections, he will be severely overbet for a horse who isn’t even fast enough to hit the superfecta based on his speed figures to date. Other horses in this race have run faster and also have more upside, so I will let Double Thunder beat me at an underlaid price. 

Moving beyond the favorite, there are nearly limitless options at more attractive prices to consider. The morning line on No. 13 Classic Causeway (5-1) feels a little questionable, as he ran a hole in the wind in his debut against a good field where the place horse Trafalgar returned to win next out.

I’m taking most races from the closing weekend at Saratoga with a grain of salt, however, as the track was playing very kindly towards speed at that time. Regardless, he is a huge player here if he can overcome the poor draw.

No. 3 Stellar Tap (9-2) disappointed as the even money favorite last out after showing huge promise in his debut. He regressed significantly in that race and appeared to be a horse who wasn’t quite ready to go two turns. As the second choice, I’m not particularly enamored with him in this event.

No. 5 Don’t Wait Up (9-2) is another who is likely to attract support after the horse he defeated last out, Commandperformance, went on to run second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) behind highly regarded Jack Christopher. Once again, I feel like he is another horse who took advantage of the rail speed bias at Saratoga over that muddy track, so while I do respect his ability, I’m hesitant to support him at short odds.

The two horses I am most interested in betting are No. 6 Rattle N Roll (6-1) and No. 9 Great Escape (8-1). Both of these horses have shown versatility and the ability to pass other horses and win from off the pace, something that many 2-year-olds are unable to do. Given the abundance of early speed in this race, I think the stalking run style both of these horses possess lends them a significant tactical advantage.

I will concede that Rattle N Roll appears too slow to win on paper. However, the pace was extremely slow in his maiden win, and he was forced to navigate through traffic while stuck behind horses before finally getting clear and powering home for a win. Slow paces can oftentimes result in slow speed figures, but it was impressive that he was able to rally from off the pace despite the disadvantageous setup. He should get an honest pace here, and he’s the only horse in the field proven at this distance.

McPeek has won before in spots like this with horses who appeared too slow. In the last five years, he is 17 percent (3/18) with 2-year-old last out maiden breakers moving into graded stakes with a $2.87 ROI. I think Rattle N Roll gets lost on the board in this race, and I would not be surprised to see double digit odds come post time.

On the other hand, Great Escape enters this race with the best last-out speed figure of the field, excluding those who took advantage of the rail speed bias closing week of Saratoga. He has displayed a tremendous turn of foot in both of his starts and appears like a horse who will relish added ground.

Rodolphe Brisset has excellent statistics with horses stretching out, as he is 31 percent (5/16) with a $3.50 ROI with 2-year-old horses going sprint to route on dirt. That figure improves to a ridiculous 42 percent (5/12) if limiting the sample to the Kentucky circuit, for a gaudy $4.66 ROI.

Great Escape showed exactly the kind of improvement you hope to see from a second time starter, and he projects further improvement on the stretch out to two turns.

While Double Thunder is unlikely to be a heavy favorite in the win pool, I do believe he will be more strongly supported in the multi-race wagers. Therefore, we are going to target a bet that looks to take advantage of his status as an underlaid favorite in the daily double pool. I believe Althiqa is a stone cold single in Race 8 the First Lady (G1), so we will key her in a daily double with Rattle N Roll, Great Escape, and Classic Causeway.

How to play it:

Race 8

Daily Double: 3 / 6,9,13