Taking a Stand: Santa Anita Sprint Championship is the focus

Welcome to Taking a Stand.

In this weekly column, I will be identifying a horse who is likely to be heavily bet whom I believe is a vulnerable favorite. Many horseplayers are far too quick to use a weak favorite defensively while playing not to lose.

However, some of the biggest scores can come as a result of taking an aggressive stance against a horse the public will heavily support. This column is not for the faint of heart, but tremendous opportunities abound for those steely-eyed souls willing to play against the masses. 

Last week, we extended our streak to a perfect two-for-two as we successfully faded Moretti, who finished a tired fifth as the post-time favorite. Furthermore, our top selection of Magic Michael launched a furious last-to-first rally to secure the win at generous odds of 9-2.

This weekend we have a number of high profile races to consider on both coasts, with Belmont and Santa Anita boasting robust cards full of excellent racing. We will head to the Great Race Place, Santa Anita, and take a deeper dive into Race 8, the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2). We are taking a hard stance against the morning line favorite No. 1 Dr. Schivel (2-1).

The Santa Anita Sprint Championship is a bit of a handicapping conundrum when evaluating the field. The main challenge is that the recent race results do not necessarily agree with the recent race speed figures when trying to identify the horse most likely to win.

Dr. Schivel defeated a few of today’s rivals in the Bing Crosby (G1) on July 31 at Del Mar. However, the speed figure of that race came back abnormally slow for the level. Dr. Schivel won the race with a relatively weak TimeformUS speed figure of only 110, and the Beyer speed figure was not much more flattering at 93.

To put Dr. Schivel’s speed figures into better context, consider this: the fastest race he’s ever run is still slower than the last out win by the longest price on the board, No. 3 Colt Fiction (8-1). While some may elect to believe the Bing Crosby speed figures are a little too light, it still represents the second best race of Dr. Schivel’s career.

Despite the fact he won the race, it is alarming that Dr. Schivel took a step backwards in his second start of the year. Lightly raced three-year-old horses should be steadily improving, so the lack of improvement and minor regression is a cause for some concern.

Additionally, one could argue that Dr. Schivel had the run of the race last out when he was able to stalk behind an extremely hot pace and his chief rival, C Z Rocket, was forced very wide in the turn. He faces a polar opposite pace scenario today, as it appears there is not a ton of early speed signed on for this affair. Santa Anita traditionally plays more friendly to early speed than Del Mar, which could further stack the deck against him.

As handicappers, we must be astute and take a critical view when evaluating short priced horses winning races in mediocre final times. Dr. Schivel is flattered by a four-race win streak, but he has not run fast enough to generally compete at this level. He took advantage of a soft Grade 1 in the Bing Crosby where a few key rivals didn’t show up with their best effort, and it is unlikely for that outcome to happen again.

Dr. Schivel is capable of winning this race, but he would need to run a career best effort to do so. As the morning line favorite at odds of 2-1, we will be against a horse requiring a new top effort to win.

Many folks will default to the somewhat obvious second and third contenders here in No. 4 C Z Rocket (5-2) and No. 5 Flagstaff (7-2).

Between those two, I strongly prefer the former, C Z Rocket. His Bing Crosby was the slowest race he has run since being claimed by Peter Miller over a year ago, and it was likely an aberration rather than a reason to be concerned. He bounced back out of that race fine with a strong showing in the Pat O’Brien (G2), although he is another who may be compromised by the apparent lack of early speed.

The latter, Flagstaff, appears to be a rare seven furlong specialist, and I believe six furlongs is just a little too sharp. He has been defeated by C Z Rocket in each of their last four meetings, and I don’t anticipate that changing on Saturday.

While I respect the aforementioned horses, I’m inclined to go a different direction to two others whom I believe possess more upside at more attractive prices. No. 6 Collusion Illusion (4-1) was an extremely promising sprinter as a three-year-old, winning the Bing Crosby and finishing a good third to superstar Charlatan in the Malibu (G1).

I’m not holding the Breeder’s Cup Sprint (G1) against him, as many horses failed to show up that day and it’s likely he didn’t handle shipping across the country very well. I’m also ignoring the last start on turf, as he was only running in that race due to being forced to miss the 2021 Bing Crosby due to a minor hoof injury and was coming off of a 239 day layoff.

Collusion Illusion has a few races as a three-year-old that would make him competitive today if he runs back to them. With any improvement as a four-year-old, he would surely be the horse to beat. I believe the key to this horse Saturday, however, is the addition of blinkers.

Watching his Sept. 18 workout, he was not visually impressive, making up ground early but tiring late when working in a group of three. However, he donned blinkers for the Sept. 25 work and absolutely demolished a hopelessly overmatched Hess and Callaghan pair. I think the blinkers will keep him more focused and more involved in the race early, making him a huge contender at square odds. 

The other horse I’m interested in is No. 2 Vertical Threat (6-1). It’s fair to question if this colt is classy enough to compete at this level, as both of his romps have come against extremely suspect fields at Charles Town and Mahoning Valley.

While he has run poorly when moved into Grade 1 company, I believe there are legitimate excuses in those efforts. For the Pat Day Mile (G1), he was simply going a distance that was too far. He nevertheless put in a solid effort before tiring late inside the final furlong.

His Bing Crosby effort can also be excused, as he was making his first start in 250 days and doing so in a Grade 1 race. That is an exceptionally tough task for any horse, so it’s no surprise he faded when forced to run extremely quickly early to keep up with speedster Brickyard Ride.

The chief appeal for Vertical Threat is the fact that he should enjoy a significant tactical advantage over his foes in this race. He showed he is no worse for wear when cruising to an easy lead last out, and he has always been most effective when allowed to dictate the pace of the race.

With Colt Fiction appearing to be the only horse even remotely able to challenge for the early lead, Vertical Threat should be able to set moderate fractions and control the race on the lead. He is a somewhat risky option, but at 6-1 I believe you get paid to take that risk.

Taking everything into account, Dr. Schivel is a horse that we want to play against in all pools. His speed figures suggest he has been getting fortunate to win, and he is genuinely one of the slower horses in this race based on final times.

Collusion Illusion is the horse I prefer the most, with Vertical Threat being a dangerous longshot. C Z Rocket and Flagstaff are both likely to hit the board, but both have vulnerabilities due to either pace or distance.

How to play it:

Win bet: 6

Larger Exacta: 6 / 2

Smaller Exacta: 2 / 6

Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6