Sword Dancer fair odds + video: Agreement on Saratoga value

When the Paddock Prince and I agree, watch out.

Already in the throes of a positive return-on-investment season halfway through the Saratoga meet, Paddock Prince David Levitch joined me to dish on the Breeders’ Cup Classic division as it stands after Sierra Leone’s Grade 1 Whitney win last weekend. We also examine the Breeders’ Cup Turf division with the Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga and Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs on Saturday.

There are plenty of key takeaways from our video sure to both entertain and make you a better horseplayer, but the biggest reveal is that we agree on a long shot in the Sword Dancer. We agree on the Million, too, but that’s a chalky opinion.

Far Bridge and Nations Pride will be the top two choices, and both Paddock Prince and I greatly prefer Far Bridge to Nations Pride. Far Bridge likely will be favored and definitely is a logical key if you like other long shots as we do.

El Rezeen was no match for Far Bridge in the Bowling Green last out, chasing that one home to lose by three lengths. He was farther back than one might expect given the 11-furlong distance then, and now he gets out to 1 1/2 miles. He does not need to be seven wide for the drive against this group, either. I’ll play for a better trip second off the layoff.

Utah Beach for soon-to-be-retired Nacho Correas is interesting here getting José Ortiz after a wide trip last out. His 12-furlong record of 4-for-7 keeps him in the conversation here. 

I will watch the board and bet El Rezeen to win at 10-1 or longer. If that price does not materialize, then Utah Beach should offer value. Either way I will key Far Bridge with these two in the vertical gimmicks and try to beat Nations Pride out of the number.