Superfecta keys: Play this catchy quartet at Saratoga, Del Mar

These Saturday races at Saratoga and Del Mar meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Saratoga

Race 9

The Alabama Stakes (G1) is a 1 1/4-mile dirt event for 3-year-old fillies and has attracted a field of 10 for this edition, including three trained by Todd Pletcher and two trained by Chad Brown. All runners exit dirt races - five at Saratoga, two at Horseshoe Indianapolis and one each at Keeneland, Belmont and Delaware.

Click here for Saratoga entries and results.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in every three starts overall. This is the first time any entrant has tried the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven tries. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead. But since the field is comprised of 3-year-old runners never going this long along with three making only their fifth start, the pace scenario is even more difficult to predict than usual.

No. 3 Julia Shining one of the Pletcher runners should pass horses late, has been closer to the pace in her last two tries. She also has compiled two wins and two places across four starts while showing some tractability. This fifth career start provides a lot of room for improvement. She is your key runner at 5-1.

No. 9 Taxed is a balanced, tractable runner who has ground her way to five top four finishes in six tries since coming to the barn of Randy Morse, a trainer who does well with limited stock. She is as consistent as anyone in the field and is 8-1.

Another Pletcher runner, no. 7 Gambling Girl, is a model of consistency with 11 top four finishes in 11 starts. She is a classic grinder coming out of four consecutive graded stakes. Her odds are 8-1. The Brown trained no. 8 Randomized is the likeliest to be on the lead and is one of three runners in the field with only four lifetime tries logging two wins and a third in four lifetime starts. She has strong improvement potential at odds of 9-2.

There is no doubt that no. 2 Wet Paint is going to be part of the mix late. The Brad Cox-trained filly boasts a seven of nine in-the-money record along with a fourth place finish after running off the board on debut on turf. She will be moving late and is an underlay as the likely post time favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 2, 7, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

This one mile inner turf optional claimer for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Chad Brown. Eight runners exit turf races – five at Saratoga and three at Belmont – with the final runners exiting dirt races at Santa Anita and Saratoga.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in  one of every five tries for races that show. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off-the-pace.

Brown saddles no. 2 Napoleonic War, who is six-for-six in terms of top-four finishes in turf routes at 1 1/8 or less. He is your key runner coming from off-the-pace at 7-2.

No. 6 Maxwell Esquire is largely a sprinter and is 15 of 26 overall with a first and third in three tries at the distance. He should be passing very tired runners late inheriting a placing at odds of 20-1.

No. 1 Duke of Hazzard, making his first start for Rick Dutrow Jr., is the likeliest to trail early and make up a lot of ground late for his fourth trainer in his last 11 starts. He has a solid 20 for 36 in-the-money record while racing exclusively on turf his entire career and is 8-1.

Brendan Walsh trains no. 5 Whisper Not, a clear come-from-behind runner who logged his first win since 2021 last time out and looks on a decline overall in his 6-year-old season. But he does fit here, with an overall one out of two in-the-money record. He is 9-2.

Brown’s other runner no. 9 Verbal is going to be passing runners late and has two wins and one second in three starts at the distance. He is most likely to improve and is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 5, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Del Mar

Race 8

The Del Mar Oaks (G1), a 1 1/8 turf stakes for 3-year-olds fillies, draws a field of 10, including two each saddled by Richard Mandella and Phil D’Amato. Seven runners exit turf races – six at Del Mar and one at Belmont – with the final three coming out of dirt races, two at Del Mar and one at Santa Anita.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and three of four at the distance.

Click here for Del Mar entries and results.

The runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one in every 12 starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

One of the D’Amato entries is no. 6 Impact Warrior, who finished second in her U.S. debut after four starts in Ireland that resulted in a win and a fourth along with two off-the-board efforts. She has a very balanced style based upon that one U.S. start and is your key runner at 4-1.

No. 1 And Tell Me Nolies, trained by Peter Miller, passes horses and can show some tactical speed, as evidenced by some of her early dirt runs. She is making her second turf start and should enjoy the added distance. She figures to be part of the mix late at odds 12-1.

One of the Mandella runners, no. 2 Window Shopping, ran on turf on debut, finishing off the board. Subsequent to that, she was switched to dirt for her next three runs, breaking her maiden by open lengths then progressing to two graded stakes where she finished third and notched a win. She is good enough her to be part of the mix at odds of 6-1.

East Coast-based trainer Horacio De Paz ships in no. 9 Be Your Best, who comes out of five consecutive graded stakes tries, with a second and third to show for those efforts. Her last try was in a turf marathon and she faded late compared to her prior efforts when she showed some more balance in her runs. She is 4-1.

No. 5 Anisette trained by Leonard Powell is an extremely impressive 3-year-old filly making her third stateside turf start and second at Del Mar after logging a first, second and fourth place finish on synthetic in Great Britain. Her first two U.S. runs were impressive wins from well off the pace and while she will be facing an expected slow pace, she is going to be quite strong late but may fall short. She is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 1, 2, 5 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

This 1 1/16 optional claimer on turf for 3-year-olds and up attracted a nearly full field of 11, including one runner with a new trainer. Nine runners exit turf races - six at Del Mar and three at Santa Anita - with the final two runners coming out of a dirt race at Ellis and a synthetic race at Gulfstream.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and one in six at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners on or coming from off the pace, including deep closers.

The Phil D’Amato trained no. 4 Tio Magico knows how to pass runners and has finished in the top four seven of his last eight tries across dirt, synthetic and also includes four consecutive solid runs his last four starts on turf. He is your key runner at 5-1.

No. 3 Fly the Sky is just fast enough late to be a factor, entering this with a record of six top four finishes in his last 10 turf tries and a similar overall in-the-money record across 27 total turf starts. He is going to have pace to chase and will be passing runners late at odds of 20-1.

The Jeff Mullins trained no. 9 Vancougar ran in six consecutive turf sprints, breaking his maiden in his fourth try. He tried a mile last time and ran an even fifth while encountering some problems. He should improve in his second route and should be able to pass runners like he did in his sprint efforts and is 12-1.

David Hofmans, who saddles few runners these days, enters no. 7 Act Three, who broke his maiden last time out at a slightly longer distance coming from off the pace. He figures to improve in only his third lifetime start and is 5-1.

No. 6 El Potente has two wins in three tries on turf and while he has tactical speed he does not need the lead. He has run progressively better in virtually every try across dirt and turf and has improved even more since arriving in the Dan Blacker barn four starts ago, when those two turf tries were recorded. He is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 3, 6, 7, and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.