Superfecta keys: Play 5 exotics Saturday at Gulfstream

These Saturday races at Gulfstream Park meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Race 4

Nine fillies and mares 3 years old and up face off in this one mile optional claimer on turf, including two trained by Chad Brown along with one trying turf for the first time. Six runners exit turf races - two each at Aqueduct and Gulfstream and one each at Royal Ascot (England) and Keeneland. The field is rounded out by two horses exiting synthetic races at Gulfstream along with one coming out of a dirt race at Laurel.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 53 total starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Bill Mott trained no. 8 Swoop to Finish is four of eight on turf with one win as she makes her first try at the distance. She figures to close but may run out of ground as far as winning. She is your key runner at 7-2.

The Brendan Walsh trained no. 3 Excellent Question is a closer and did win from far off the pace in her one try at the distance. Her only turf runs after six dirt starts have resulted in a first, third and fourth in her last three tries. She is a player and improving at odds of 10-1.

The European invader no. 5 Marksman Queen out of the Graham Motion barn logged two seconds and a first at one mile on synthetic in Great Britain before running up the track at Royal Ascot in her turf debut at today’s distance. She is a bit of a wild card and is 8-1.

The Chad Brown runner no. 7 Hola Gata needed five tries before breaking her maiden at Kentucky Downs. She then followed that up with a solid second on the Keeneland green at a slightly longer distance. She will never be far out of it and is 3-1.

The lightly raced no. 2 Delahaye, also trained by Brown, broke her maiden in her second try at a slightly longer distance at Aqueduct after falling just short at Gulfstream at 7 1/2 furlongs. She has early speed and looks best here at 8-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 2, 3, 5 and 7 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

The Suwannee River Stakes (G3) for fillies and mares 3 years old and up will be contested at one mile on the turf. This year's edition has attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., with one of his runners stretching out on turf for the first time. Six runners exit turf races - two at Churchill and one each at Santa Anita, Kentucky Downs, Laurel and Aqueduct. The other four runners last ran on synthetic tracks, two each at Presque Isle Downs and Gulfstream.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every five tries for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

The Motion-trained no. 7 Willakia has never finished worse than fourth in seven turf routes and is a closer who will be moving late. She is your key runner at 6-1.

The Christophe Clement trained relatively deep closer no. 10 Messidor moves up in this field given the anticipated pace. She is six of seven at the distance, with two wins, and looks generously priced at 15-1.

No. 9 Fast as Flight is trained by Brian Lynch, who is having a very good year with Gulfstream runners and boasts a nine of 13 record on turf. Fast as Flight has finished in the money in six of eight races at today's distance, including a couple wins, and has the ability to pass runners late. Her odds are 5-2.

The Brown trained no. 1 Saffron Moon has never finished worse than fourth in five lifetime turf tries and has two wins in three tries at the distance. She is a solid superfecta player at odds of 7-2.

High percentage trainer Brittany Russell sends out the versatile no. 4 Full Count Felicia, who can stalk, lead or close and brings a creditable seven of 12 in-the-money record on turf, with four wins. She is a very formidable player here at 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 4, 9 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

A full field of 12 will face off in this mile and 70 yard handicap on synthetic, including three each trained by Joseph and Mike Maker and two by Mark Casse. Joseph and Maker also have one runner apiece who is new to their barn and trying synthetic for the first time. Six runners exit synthetic races, five at Gulfstream and one at Woodbine. Five exit turf races, two at Aqueduct and one each at Gulfstream, Keeneland and Kentucky Downs. The final runner comes out of a dirt race at Fair Grounds.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and three of four at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Casse runner no. 3 Conglomerate is 16 of 18 on synthetic with eight wins and also has tactical speed. He is your key runner at 5-1.

The inclusion of no. 11 Dreams of Tomorrow, who only has one start on synthetic resulting in a third place finish, is based upon his ability to be just off the lead in his turf runs along with the front running third on synthetic whenhe faded late. That puts him in the mix with tactical but not need-to-lead speed at odds of 12-1.

No. 1 Fly the W, who hails from the barn of  high percentage trainer Bobby Dibona, has finished in the money in 18 of 22 races on synthetic, with 11 wins. His tactical speed makes him a valuable player here at 12-1.

The Joseph trained no. 2 Saratoga Flash has one win in one try on synthetic along with a one of two in-the-money record on turf. If he runs to the one win against this field he is a player and his odds are 8-1.

The Brian Lynch-trained no. 6 Skyro looks very fast here and is three of four at the distance with two wins. His odds are 4-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 2, 6 and 11 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (G3) is a 1 1/16 dirt race for 3-year-olds and up . This year a field of 11 has been entered, including two each trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and Todd Pletcher. All runners exit dirt races - three each at Gulfstream and Churchill, two each at Aqueduct and Keeneland and one at Delta Downs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and three of four at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate and runners on or near the lead should have an advantage.

The Pletcher trained no. 9 Gasoline is eight of 12 overall and boasts two wins in two tries at the distance. He has a grinding type style but can be on the lead too. He is your key runner at odds of 9-2.

Dibona sends out no. 10 Steal Sunshine who looks underrated in this spot. His overall record is 11 for 16 on dirt and he is on the improve in his last few starts. His odds are 15-1.

No. 1 Dubyuhnell trained by Danny Gargan showed promise as a 2-year-old before regressing in two graded events on the road to the Kentuckky Derby in his first starts at 3. His recent comeback race was solid at Keeneland winning from just off the lead. He is 8-1.

Jeff Hiles ships in no. 4 Blue Devil, who is coming out of two very tough graded stakes in which he finished third and fourth. He looks as solid as any of the players in the field trying the distance for the first time. He tried dirt four starts back and has logged two wins and those graded placings and is 6-1.

The Joseph trained no. 6 O’Connor is dangerous and will be moving late to be part of the mix. He has an impressive 20 of 24 in-the-money record on dirt, with 11 wins across the U.S. and South America. He is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 1, 4, 6 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The Fort Lauderdale Stakes (G2), a 1 1/8 turf run for 3-year-olds and up, has attracted a field of 10, including two each trained by Brown, Todd Pletcher and Mike Maker. Eight runners exit turf races, six at Aqueduct and two at Churchill, with the other two runners exiting synthetic events at Woodbine.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and one in three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of nine tries for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Pletcher-trained no. 2 Grand Sonata has pace-pressing speed and has finished in the top four in each of his four starts at the distance. He is your key runner at 9-2.

The Maker-trained no. 8 Red Run looks competitive at this distance if you are willing to ignore his last run, when he was beaten four lengths in a graded stakes. He is a pace presser and should be a stretch factor coming off a win at the distance and a fourth place finish at 1 1/2 miles prior to the graded run. He is 12-1.

No. 6 Fort Washington for Shug McGaughey looks underrated here. His 10 of 14 in-the-money record on turf is solid and he is going to pass horses late while making only his second start at the distance. His one try at this distance in a graded stake is deceptively better than his seventh place finish. He is 10-1.

The other Pletcher trainee, no. 3 Jerry the Nipper, is a solid eight of 10 in the money on turf and should be a grinding stretch factor at odds of 8-1.

No. 7 Stone Age is largely a marathon turf runner and his runs that show in those longer routes suggest he will be forwardly placed. He has faced the toughest competition in the field as he tries the distance for the first time with an eight of 17 in-the-money record on turf. He is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 6, 7 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.