Superfecta keys: Monday plays at Fair Grounds, Santa Anita

For me one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available.

However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.

Here are four plays at Fair Grounds and Santa Anita that meet the criteria on Monday.

At Fair Grounds

Race 1

The opener at Fair Grounds is a 5 1/2-furlong dirt dash for nine state-bred allowance fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up, with one runner coming in off the claim. Eight runners exit dirt races: six at Fairgrounds and two at Delta Downs with one coming out of an Evangeline Downs turf race.

The field has combined for an in the money rate of greater than two in five starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call two in five starts for races that show. I anticipate a very fast pace with the advantage to off pace runners and deep closers.

No. 4 Graceleadsushome has one try at the distance racing on synthetic, finishing second, and has five top four finishes in six lifetime tries. She particularly enjoys Fair Grounds, where she is four for four. She should be slightly off the pace and grind her way to a strong finish as your key runner at odds of 9-2.

No. 2 Crypto Brave, who has seven top four finishes in her last 10 tries, is the only true closer in the field and should move up late at long odds of 30-1.

Solid percentage trainer Sam B. David saddles No. 7 Funkylittleshack, who comes out of three consecutive turf sprints where she broke her maiden and finished in the money each time. Her prior two starts were dirt runs at Fair Grounds where she faded late at six furlongs. With the cutback in distance, she should be around late for a share after running on or near the lead at odds of 6-1.

Trainer Chris Hartman’s runner No. 3 Maestria is simply too fast from the gate to ignore and she may shake loose and not look back. This runner should be on or near the lead and last for a share at odds of 4-1.

No. 8 Basalt Street has nine top four finishes in her last 10 starts and also demonstrated the ability to pass horses. She is going to take some solid money and is a must include at odds of 3-1.

The play

10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 2, 3, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60

At Santa Anita

Race 7

The hillside turf course is the setting for this 6 1/2-furlong state-bred allowance race, which attracted a full field of 12 fillies and mares 3 and up, including two trained by Doug O’Neill.

The field exits largely turf races, including six at Del Mar and three at Santa Anita, with the three remaining runners coming out of dirt races at Los Alamitos and one at Santa Anita. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have had the lead at the second call a combined greater than one in five starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate to fast pace with the advantage to midpack or just-off-the-lead runners.

Mark Glatt saddles No. 1 Flame McGoon, who is trying the distance for the first time and sports a solid five straight in the money finishes after finishing off the board on debut. She has demonstrated she can race near the lead at six furlongs and still pack a closing punch and is your key runner at odds of 5-1.

No. 5 Lady Maryann is trained by small stable low percentage trainer Jorge Gutierrez and has only two turf dashes to her credit in six lifetime start, including one third-place finish. One of the lighter raced runners in the field, she has a very balanced running style and looks like a solid player with four in the money finishes in six tries. Her morning line odds are 12-1.

Longtime trainer Ben Cecil does not enter many runners and No. 7 Eleuthera looks very competitive here with six route turf starts and five top four finishes in her last five efforts. She races close to the pace  and should be very competitive down the stretch at odds of 6-1.

One of the O’Neill runners is No. 9 La Deuxieme Etoile, who has finished in the top four in seven of 10 tries on turf. She is largely a router who has run close to the pace in most efforts. This runner looks very tractable and should be full of energy late at odds of 5-1.

John Sadler sends out No. 8 Big Beauty, a runner with eight starts and eight top four finishes. She is a true turf grinder, with only one win at a mile on the tur, but always passes horses in the lane. She looks very strong as a lower priced superfecta player. Her odds are 7-2.

The play

10-cent superfecta key, using 1 with 5, 7, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

A field of nine 3-year-olds and up will face off in the seven-furlong Malibu Stakes (G1) on the dirt, including two each trained by Bob Baffert, Dallas Stewart and Peter Miller.

All runners exit dirt races: three at Keeneland, two at Zia Park, and one each at Del Mar, Santa Anita, Mahoning Valley and Churchill Downs. The field has combined for an in the money rate of nearly three in four starts overall and is 6-for-6 at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four starts for races that show. I anticipate a very fast pace with the advantage to midpack runners and those just off the lead.

Wesley Ward does not typically ship to California and No. 4 Nakatomi looks like a solid player who has finished in the top four in all seven starts on the dirt. He is an improving horse who knows how to pass runners and is your key runner at odds of 10-1 despite it being his first try at the distance.

One of the Stewart runners is No. 5 Hoist the Gold, who does not win much but sports seven top four finishes in his last 10 starts at six different tracks. He always shows up, passes horses, and has a second and third at the distance in two tries. He is a great superfecta addition at odds of 12-1.

The other Stewart runner is No. 8 Strava, who has collected seven checks in nine starts on dirt - including a third-place finish in his lone try at the distance - and is most likely to close if the pace is overly contentious. His morning line odds are 15-1.

One of the Miller runners is No. 7 Perfect Flight, who has been in the money five straight tries. He looks like a tractable runner who may be able to get one of the first jump on the speed in his first try at the distance and hold on for a share at odds of 12-1.

No. 6 Taiba - one of the Baffert runners - is going to take some beating as he comes out of a solid showing in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). His lone off the board finish was in the Kentucky Derby. He will be the post time favorite and be a tough challenger in the stretch trying this distance for the first time.

The play

10-cent superfecta key, using 4 with 5, 6, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The American Oaks (G1) is a 1 1/4-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies run on the downhill turf course and has attracted a field of 11, including three trained by Phil D’Amato and two by Graham Motion along with three runners saddled by new trainers.

All runners exit turf races: five at Del Mar, three at Aqueduct, two at Keeneland and one at Santa Anita. The field has combined for an in-the- money rate of nearly three in four starts overall and two of three at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call only three times in 67 combined starts for races that show. I anticipate a slow pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

One of the D’Amato runners is No. 1 Rhea Moon who is trying a marathon for the first time. She tends to be a closer and her late acceleration can make her a strong superfecta player, especially if the pace is not as slow as anticipated. She is 8-1 as your key runner.

One of the Motion runners new to his barn is No. 8 Pizza Bianca, who has not contested a turf marathon. Her inclusion is for very similar reasons to No. 1 Rhea Moon, and I anticipate strong acceleration in the lane at odds of 6-1.

The other Motion runner, No. 2 Sparkle Blue, is trying a marathon for the first time. She has strong pace-pressing speed and has demonstrated versatility across five different turf surfaces, with only one out of the top four finish in seven tries. She is 8-1.

Trainer Mark Glatt is not as good on turf as on dirt, but he has a proven marathon runner in No. 5 Bellstreet Bride, who has run 13 times on turf and synthetic with 11 in-the-money finishes. She brings a run of 10 consecutive marathon tries with one off the board finish. Her odds are 4-1.

Brendan Walsh sends out No. 6 Mise En Scene for the first time and her last effort was a solid sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She has some very solid efforts to her credit across the pond and is one of the few runners to have run a distance more than a mile and one-eighth on turf. She is a player at odds of 4-1.

The play

10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 2, 5, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.