Superfecta keys: Play these 5 races at Gulfstream on Saturday

These Saturday races at Gulfstream Park meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Race 3

This turf marathon for optional claimers 4-year-olds and up will be contested at the 1 3/8 distance. The field of 11 includes two saddled by Mark Casse with one trying turf for the first time and two trying a turf marathon for the first time. Six runners exit turf races - five at Gulfstream and one at Aqueduct - with three coming out of two Gulfstream dirt races, one off a Keeneland dirt event and the final two exiting synthetic races at Turfway Park and Woodbine.

The field has a combined in-the-money rate of nearly 1-in-2 starts overall and 4-of-6 combined starts at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call only one time in over 100 starts for races that show. I anticipate a very slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

George Weaver sends out No. 9 Ever Dangerous, who has pace-pressing speed and should be a factor throughout. His tactical but not need-to-lead speed should make his way to a very solid finish and he is your key runner at odds of 9-2.

Roger Attfield saddles No. 7 Ready for the Lady, who is 3-for-4 on turf with two wins at marathon distances along with a third at a mile. He was very close to the lead in one of those turf marathons and should grind his way to a solid showing at odds of 15-1.

No. 5 Barrage is trying a marathon for the first time and sports a solid 7-of-11 record on the grass. He should be close to the pace and last for a share at odds of 12-1.

No. 10 Marwad has the fewest starts in the field and is the other runner trying a marathon for the first time. The marathon distance should move him up in this field and he projects to be a bit closer than usual and an extremely solid stretch factor, with three of five in-the-money finishes on synthetic. His two off-the-board runs were reasonable efforts on turf and he should improve here at odds of 5-1.

The difficult to exclude, hard to figure runner is No. 1 Corelli, who comes in off a long layoff. Given he's been facing tougher in his last six starts – all graded stakes – he is hard to leave out, though his price will not be attractive for the win.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 1, 5, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 4

The synthetic course is the setting for this mile-and-70-yard handicap for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up, which drew a field of nine. Five runners exit dirt races – two at Churchill and one each at Gulfstream, Laurel and Tampa Bay – with four runners coming out of turf races at Gulfstream.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 1-in-2 starts overall and 2-of-3 at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one in seven tries for races that show. The mixture of runners and surfaces last out now contesting synthetic makes this race a very wide open event. I anticipate a solid pace with the advantage to off-pace runners.

No. 7 Mozay took nine tries on turf and synthetic surfaces to break her maiden for Bill Mott but she was in the money eight of those tries and finished fourth in her other race. That record makes her your key runner at odds of 6-1.

No. 2 Love her Lots is being included off very solid record of 11-of-14 overall and a 6-of-7 in-the-money at the distance and on synthetic. She runs to her competition and should be right there at odds of 10-1.

Shug McGaughey saddles No. 3 Café Society, who has hit the board seven of her last eight tries and placed second in her only synthetic starts, both sprints at Presque Isle Downs. One of those starts came in the Presque Isle Downs Masters (G2), which is a very competitive race for fillies and mares. She is 3-1.

Rusty Arnold sends out No. 5 Illiogami, who is trying synthetic for the first time off a lifetime 6-of-11 record across dirt and turf. She has a grinding style but has finished out of the top four only twice in her last 10 starts, both of which were graded stakes. She is 6-1.

No. 6 Keeper of Time won her only try on synthetic on this course and distance. She is a consistent mare and looks like she will grind her way to a solid placing at relatively low odds.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 2, 3, 5 and 6. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

The seven-furlong Inside Information Stakes (G2) on the dirt is for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up. A field of 10 has been entered, including two trained by Dale Romans with one other runner assigned a new trainer. Seven runners exit dirt events – three at Gulfstream and one each at Remington, Keeneland, Churchill and Tampa Bay – with three runners coming out of synthetic races – two at Turfway and one at Woodbine.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 2-in-3 starts overall and a slightly higher rate at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call nearly one in four starts for races that show. I anticipate a solid pace with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

Local small stable trainer Joe Catanese sends out No. 7 Maryquitecontrary, who has won five of her six lifetime starts and is three for four at the distance. She looks as tough as any of her competitors and should be moving late as your key runner at odds of 5-1.

Local trainer Ron Spatz saddles No. 9 Last Leaf, who is not as fast as some of the better competitors here but has a home-field advantage, with seven in-the-money finishes in nine dirt tries at Gulfstream. She should pass horses late at odds of 12-1.

No. 3 Colorful Mischief, trained by Todd Pletcher, has run one bad race from seven lifetime starts and may get a jump on the deep closers if she is able to avoid being on the pace early. She is well worth inclusion at odds of 6-1.

Brad Cox saddles No. 1 Famed, who has finished in the money in eight of nine starts, with her only off-the-board finish coming a graded stakes where she finished fourth. She should take a lot of money and be a strong contender at odds of 5-1.

No. 4 Obligatory, who figures to be an overwhelming betting choice, is going to come from way out of it. She owns a 9-of-14 record and finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in her last start. She is clearly faster than her competitors but has come up short in other events where she took some solid money. History could repeat itself if the pace is not as fast as anticipated.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 3, 4 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational Stakes (G3) is a 1 1/16 event for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up. All but one of the 11 runners entered exit turf races – four at Gulfstream, three at Churchill, two at Keeneland and one at Santa Anita – with the final runner coming out of a synthetic race at Woodbine.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two of every three starts overall and a similar rate at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call at a rate of better than one in five starts overall for races that show. I expect a solid pace with the advantage to off-pace runners and deep closers.

No. 6 Queen Goddess, saddled by Michael McCarthy, is a tractable runner and should be forwardly placed. She enters the race with an 8-of-10 lifetime record on turf, including two wins and a third at the distance. She is your key runner at odds of 9-2.

No. 4 Sweet Enough makes her fourth U.S. start and third turf start for Roger Attfield. She is a solid 5-of-8 in the money on turf, including four wins. Her last start at Gulfstream was a solid win at today’s distance. She should inherit a place off fading speed and her odds are 20-1.

Paulo Lobo saddles No. 8 Justify My Love for only her fourth stateside start after running in Argentina. Her last race was a win at Churchill at this distance. She sports a solid 7-of-11 record on turf against some very large fields and it would not be a stretch to see her barreling home late as part of the superfecta at odds of 30-1.

Bill Mott sends out No. 3 Wakanaka, who has finished in the money in 13 of 15 starts on turf and owns a very solid closing punch. She is a turf grinder who won most of her races early in Europe and been in the money five of her seven U.S. tries. She is 5-1.

Chad Brown saddles No. 9 Shantisara, who reeled off five firsts and seconds followed by an off-the-board finish since he took over the French import's training. She has tactical but not need-to-lead-type speed and should begin to move earlier than most of the closers in the field as the likely betting favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 3, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 13

A full field of 12 will face off in the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) contested at 1 1/8 miles on dirt including three runners trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. All runners exit dirt races - three at Gulfstream, two each at Aqueduct and Churchill, and one each at Parx, Del Mar, Oaklawn, Keeneland and Santa Anita.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two of every three starts overall and three of four at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four starts for races that show. Half the field will be making their first starts at Gulfstream. I anticipate a rapid pace with the advantage to off pace runners and closers.

No. 1 Proxy, among the horses making his first start at the track, has been handled very carefully by Michael Stidham and sports a top-four finish in each of his last 10 tries. The rapid pace and his powerful closing kick as a mid-pack runner make him a very solid competitor here as your key horse at odds of 9-2.

No. 9 Last Samurai, who also tries Gulfstream for the first time, is clearly a bit slower on average than most of his competition. But given the rapid pace scenario, his off-pace style and 10-of-18 lifetime dirt record, including 4-of-8 in the money at the distance, it would be no surprise to see him run into a placing. His odds are 20-1.

No. 11 Stilleto Boy has raced against small fields largely in California and finished third in this race last year at long odds. He is proven at the distance, with three checks in three tries, and looks like an overlay here at odds of 30-1. He does have speed but does not need the lead.

The possibility that No. 5 Defunded, trained by Bob Baffert, is going to clear the field and not look back is real and while I anticipate a fast pace it would not be a surprise if he does. In any case, he can certainly last for a share at odds of 6-1. This is his first try at Gulfstream.

No. 10 Cyberknife is going to be very difficult to beat and is another trying the track for the first time. He shows a solid 9-of-10 in-the-money finishes, with the only poor performance coming in the Kentucky Derby. He will be the likely betting favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 5, 9, 10 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.